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JulianR

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I understood "theoretical" to mean your 'data' comes from thought experiments - eg "How would I, as a counterinsurgent general, use machine guns in creative ways against insurgents?"

I'm a bit confused by your distinction: the question "Did (as opposed to Would) machine guns asymmetrically benefit insurgents?" seems entirely empirical to me. If you can't find reliable data, that just makes it hard, not theoretical.

it basically just seems to say "think about the problem until you can figure out how to test it with traditional empirical methods."

Well, yeah, what else would you expect? The post describes how you might use argument clashes and oversimplified simulations in thinking about the problem.