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[Paper] Preventing Supervolcanic Eruptions

Supervolcanic eruptions are approximately 10 times as powerful as the eruption that caused the year without a summer in 1816. A supervolcanic eruption would cause local devastation, but the main problem is blocking the sun for years and starvation (with possible loss of civilization without recovery and other far future... Read More
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[Paper] Global Catastrophic and Existential Risks Communication Scale, similar to Torino scale

  We (Alexey Turchin and David Denkenberger) have a new paper out where we suggest a scale to communicate the size of global catastrophic and existential risks. For impact risks, we have the Torino scale  of asteroid danger which has five color-coded levels. For hurricanes we have the Saffir-Simpson scale... Read More
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EA #GivingTuesday Fundraiser Matching Retrospective

by Avi Norowitz Summary For #GivingTuesday this year, Facebook had announced  that Facebook and the Gates Foundation would match donations made on Facebook up to $2 million. A number of us saw this as a rare opportunity  to get donations to EA nonprofits counterfactually matched, similar to employer matching programs... Read More
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Drug liberalization ballot initiative cost-effective at $460/DALY

Cross-posted to the  Enthea site .   In a nutshell A California ballot initiative that increases access to psychedelic drugs is a promising intervention in terms of DALYs averted. We estimate the cost-per-DALY-averted to range from $26/DALY to $90,515/DALY, with a  best-guess estimate of $460/DALY . Full analysis available  here .... Read More
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Nudging donors towards high-impact charities (a request for funding for SoGive)

This post describes SoGive’s work to make it easier for donors to find high-impact charities. SoGive is also seeking funds at the moment.   The opportunity Who plans to do this? Is there a hidden agenda to this post? How would SoGive encourage donors to make high-impact donation decisions? How... Read More
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[link] "20-year-old claims $451 million jackpot, hopes to 'do some good for humanity'"

http://abcnews.go.com/US/20-year-claims-451-million-jackpot-hopes-good/story?id=52311610 "Missler plans on plunking down some of the lottery loot for a new home in Tampa and then pursuing a 'variety of passions,' according to the Florida Lottery , as well as helping others. 'I intend to take care of my family, have some fun along the way, and... Read More
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A contact person for the EA community

I work at the Centre for Effective Altruism as the Community Liaison, which includes being a point person for the EA community. I’m a person you can come to with concerns about problems you’ve noticed or experienced in the EA community. The best way to contact me is julia.wise@centreforeffectivealtruism.org. Why... Read More
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The Technological Landscape Affecting Artificial General Intelligence and the Importance of Nanoscale Neural Probes

I have a new paper out where I describe the technological landscape leading to AGI and implications for AI safety (largely building on Bostrom's work in Superintelligence). Here's the abstract: In this paper, we contrast three major pathways to human level AI, also known as artificial general intelligence (AGI), and we... Read More
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How to get a new cause into EA

Effective altruism has had three main direct broad causes (global poverty, animal rights, and far future), for quite some time. I have often heard people worry that it’s too hard for a new cause to be accepted by the effective altruism movement. Simultaneously, I do not really see people presenting... Read More
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[Paper]: Artificial Intelligence in Life Extension: from Deep Learning to Superintelligence

There are two views on the best strategy among transhumanists and rationalists: The first involves the belief that one must invest in life extension technologies, and the latter, that it is necessary to create an aligned AI that will solve all problems, including giving us immortality or even something better.... Read More

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