Can I get alerts when new jobs get added matching my criteria?

Your objections seem reasonable but I do not understand their implications due to a lack of finance background. Would you mind helping me understand how your points affect the takeaway? Specifically, do you think that the estimates presented here are biased, much more uncertain than the post implies, or something else?

Thanks - I think this type of careful empirical analysis, and its distillation, is some of the next content on the forum. I found your section on varying parameters particularly helpful for quantifying how sensitive the approach is to these non-empirical inputs.

Based on the abstract, that study is based on a survey where they asked people about hypothetical future scenarios. Those surveys are generally considered pretty inaccurate (most people forecast their future decisions poorly) so I wouldn't put much weight on it.

So the question is basically whether the (upkeep costs + opportunity cost of money - benefit from events) is more or less than discount from selling quickly?

What do you mean by take a huge loss? I'm not sure paper losses are relevant here.

Interesting read, I'm left unconvinced that traditional pharma is moving much slower than optimal. That would seem to imply that they're leaving a lot of money on the table (quicker approval = longer selling the drug before patent expires).

I have three speculative ideas on why this might be. Cost of the process, ability to scale the process, and risk (e.g. amount of resources wasted if a drug fails at some stage in development).

As the article points out, pharma can do this when the incentives are right (COVID vaccines) which implies there's a reason to not do it normally.

You need a step beyond this though. Not just that we are coming up with harder moral problems, but that solving those problems is important to future moral progress.

Perhaps a structure as simple as the one that has worked historically will prove just as useful in the future, or, as you point out has happened in the past, wider societal changes (not progress in moral philosophy at an academic discipline) is the major driver. In either case, all this complex moral philosophy is not the important factor for practical moral progress across society.

Bear in mind that even if FTX can pay everyone back now, that does not mean they were solvent at the point they were put into bankruptcy.

In your argument for 3, I think I accept the part that moral philosophising hasn't happened much historically. However, I can't really find the argument that it probably will in the future. Could you perhaps spell it out a bit more explicitly, or highlight where you think the case is being made please?

Great and interesting post though, I love seeing people rigourously exploring EA ideas and fitting them into the wider academic literature.