Great to see this! Absolutely, we're looking forward to sharing more Metaculus collaborations with more interesting public thinkers in the near future. 

Thanks for sharing that. About to dm you. 

Metaculus Concludes Nuclear Risk Tournament Supporting Rethink Priorities

Metaculus has concluded the Nuclear Risk Tournament, supporting Rethink Priorities' efforts by helping to inform funding, policy, research, and career decisions aimed at reducing existential risk. 

Thank you to Rethink Priorities for sponsoring the tournament, thank you to the forecasters who contributed their talents, and congratulations to the tournament winners. 

Learn more

Now You Can Create Multiple Choice Questions on Metaculus

Create multiple choice questions and bring greater clarity to topics with multiple potential outcomes where one and only one will occur.

To get started, simply Create a Question and set the Question Type to 'multiple choice'.

Give the Group Variable a clear label, e.g., 'Option', 'Team', 'Country'.

Fill in the Multiple Choice Options, adding more fields as needed.

After you share additional details including background information on your topic, we'll be excited to review and publish your multiple choice question!

Metaculus launches round 2 of the Chinese AI Chips Tournament

Help bring clarity to key questions in AI governance and support research by the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS).

Start forecasting on new questions tackling broader themes of Chinese AI capability like: 

Will we see a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?

Will a Chinese firm order a large number of domestic AI chips?

Will a Chinese firm order a large number of US or US-allied AI chips?

Embed and Share All Metaculus Question Types

Now you can share and embed all question types, including question groups without fan graphs and all conditionals. Simply paste a question URL on your social platform of choice to generate a preview image:

You can also paste URLs to embed plots here on the Effective Altruism Forum and on Substack: 

Want to embed forecasts on other sites? You can access the embed code for a given question by navigating to the question page, making sure the browser window is wide enough to include the sidebar, and clicking the Embed button. 

All right, the feature is back up!

This feature is temporarily hidden while we address a bug with the sliders. I’ll update once it’s live again.

Enhanced Usability for Metaculus's Binary Question Groups

We've upgraded Metaculus's binary question groups to make forecasting faster and more efficient. Each question is equipped with its own slider, which means fewer steps to make your forecasts. 

Try the new interface on one of these question groups: 

Will China Invade Taiwan?

Who Will Be Elected To Be US President in 2024?

Will Israeli Forces Reach Gaza City Hall?

Will These Countries See Civil War by 2036?

Now you can explore more relationships between more forecast questions on Metaculus, with conditional pairs that feature question group subquestions. To submit your own: 

1. Click 'Write a Question' on Metaculus
2. Select 'conditional pair' as the Question Type
3. Click 'Select Parent' and/or 'Select Child'
4. Search for the subquestion name, which will be indicated in parentheses after the group name, or paste in the URL of the subquestion

Note: You can copy the URL of a subquestion by visiting the question group page, clicking the ‘...’ more options menu, and selecting the ‘Copy Link’ option next to the subquestion you’re focused on.

In addition to submitting a new conditional yourself, you can also request questions here in the new question discussion post.

Get Started

Here are some new subquestion conditional pairs to start forecasting on: