Upcoming AMA with Holden Karnofsky on job openings at the Open Philanthropy Project (Monday March 26, starting 9:30 am Pacific)

The Open Philanthropy Project has 5+  job openings  right now, which are an especially exciting way for people in the EA community to have an impact. Holden Karnofsky, Executive Director of the Open Philanthropy Project, would like to hear your questions about these jobs. He will host an "Ask Me... Read More

CFAR's end-of-year Impact Report and Fundraiser

End-of-year updates for those interested: CFAR made a larger effort to track our programs' impact on existential risk over the last year; you can find a partial account of our findings on our blog.  (Also, while some of the details of our tracking aren't currently published due to privacy concerns, let me know if... Read More

2018 AI Safety Literature Review and Charity Comparison

  Summary: I review a significant amount of 2017 research related to AI Safety and offer some comments about where I am going to donate this year.   Contents Contents Introduction The Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) The Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) Global Catastrophic Risks Institute (GCRI) The Center... Read More

MIRI 2017 Fundraiser and Strategy Update

Update 2017-12-27: We've blown past our 3rd and final target, and reached the matching cap of $300,000 for the $2 million Matching Challenge ! Thanks so much to everyone who supported us! All donations made before 23:59 PST on Dec 31st will continue to be counted towards our fundraiser total.... Read More

Peter Hurford thinks that a large proportion of people should earn to give long term

Recently, 80,000 Hours wrote that they think only a small proportion of people should earn to give long term. They asked their team “At this point in time, and on the margin, what portion of altruistically motivated graduates from a good university, who are open to pursuing any career path,... Read More

Cash transfers are not necessarily wealth transfers

Here’s a common argument: The problem with the poor is that they haven’t got enough money. There’s ample empirical evidence backing this up. Therefore, the obviously-correct poverty intervention is to simply give the poor cash. You might be able to do better than this, but it’s a solid baseline and... Read More

Interview with Prof Tetlock on epistemic modesty, predicting catastrophic risks, AI, and more

80,000 Hours did an interview with Professor Tetlock, one of the world's top experts on how to have accurate beliefs about the future. We asked him about a bunch of questions of interest to the community here: Should people who want to be right just adopt the views of experts rather than... Read More

Status Regulation and Anxious Underconfidence

Previous: Against Modest Epistemology   I’ve now given my critique of modesty as a set of explicit doctrines. I’ve tried to give the background theory, which I believe is nothing more than conventional cynical economics, that explains why so many aspects of the world are not optimized to the limits... Read More

Against Modest Epistemology

Previous: Blind Empiricism   Modest epistemology doesn’t need to reflect a skepticism about causal models as such. It can manifest instead as a wariness about putting weight down on  one’s own causal models, as opposed to others'. In 1976, Robert Aumann demonstrated that two ideal Bayesian reasoners with the same priors... Read More

Blind Empiricism

Previous: Living in an Inadequate World   The thesis that needs to be contrasted with modesty is not the assertion that everyone can beat their civilization all the time. It’s not that we should be the sort of person who sees the world as mad and pursues the strategy of... Read More

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