Comment author: RandomEA 23 July 2018 04:43:08PM *  1 point [-]

What do people think of the idea of having multiple funds (each run by a different manager) for those two areas (with donors allowed to choose a specific manager)?

Benefits would include:

  • a greater incentive for managers to spend money promptly and transparently

  • greater choice for donors (if managers have different worldviews e.g. long term future and thinks AI safety should be a priority, long term future but thinks AI safety should be less of a priority, community with a focus on community building, community with a focus on cause prioritization)

  • an increase in the chance that good projects are funded

Costs could include:

  • creating tension between the fund managers (and perhaps in the community at large)

  • no fund manager having enough money for bigger grants (though perhaps large grants could be left to Open Phil)

  • an increase in the chance that harmful projects are funded

Note: The idea of multiple fund managers has been proposed before.

Comment author: Dunja 20 July 2018 08:38:38PM *  1 point [-]

The problem with down-voting is that it allows for views to be dismissed without any argument provided. It's kind of bizarre to give a detailed explanation why you think X is Y, only to see someone has down-voted this without explaining a tad bit why they disagree (or why they "don't find it useful"). I just can't reconcile that approach with the idea of rational deliberation.

One solution would be to demand that every down-vote comes with a reason, to which the original poster can reply.

Comment author: RandomEA 21 July 2018 03:03:36PM 1 point [-]

How about making it so that a menu pops up when you click the downvote button? There could be a number of default options (e.g. personal attack, unsupported assertion, spam etc.) and an option to write-in a brief explanation (perhaps limited to 140 characters). That would ensure that the poster gets some feedback without requiring every downvoter to provide an explanation.

Comment author: MarekDuda 19 July 2018 01:48:03PM *  2 points [-]

Yes, that is a little ambiguous. It is trying to say that no user is at the 3-point level (if you have 25,000 karma or more). Currently no user is above the 2-point level for regular up/downvote and 8-point for the strong up/downvote. We have no plans to adjust the karma in the switch.

Re link posts, that does seem like a good idea. We will be publishing a much more detailed 'Proposed Moderation Standards' post closer to launch.

[edited for clarity]

Comment author: RandomEA 19 July 2018 11:39:40PM 1 point [-]

That totally makes sense now. Thanks for the reply.

Comment author: RandomEA 19 July 2018 01:36:51PM 3 points [-]

The post says that no user has more than 1,000 karma. But Peter_Hurford has more than 8,000 karma. I'm bringing this up not to quibble but rather because I'm wondering whether the threshold was meant to be set differently or perhaps users will lose some fraction of their karma during the switch.

Also, for link posts, I think it might be a good idea to require cross-posting the summary or an excerpt.

In response to Open Thread #40
Comment author: RandomEA 15 July 2018 10:09:52AM 3 points [-]

Frequency of Open Threads

What do people think would be the optimal frequency for open threads? Monthly? Quarterly? Semi-annually?

In response to comment by RandomEA on Open Thread #40
Comment author: DavidNash 13 July 2018 09:10:54AM *  0 points [-]

I think there was some data that showed the majority of waste happened before a product got to a supermarket, and that switching to plant based/clean meat would be more efficient than cutting waste between shop and bin.

On page 37 of this report it says, for poultry, 11% of feed energy gets converted into human food. https://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/wri13_report_4c_wrr_online.pdf

If 15% of the 11% gets wasted that seems less of priority than the original 89% that is lost, although maybe it would be a more tractable and neglected area to work on.

In response to comment by DavidNash on Open Thread #40
Comment author: RandomEA 13 July 2018 02:00:28PM 1 point [-]

My comment was concerned with the impact of food waste on the number of animals suffering on factory farms. The report you cite seems to be discussing feed that is 'wasted' in the conversion process. But since this feed is likely to be mostly plants, improving the conversion ratio would probably not have a large effect on the number of animals on factory farms. (If anything, improving the conversion ratio might increase the number of factory farmed animals by reducing how much it costs to raise animals.)

In response to Open Thread #40
Comment author: RandomEA 12 July 2018 04:03:49PM 3 points [-]

Should EAs work on reducing food waste?

According to USDA statistics, a significant percent of food purchased by consumers goes uneaten (15% of chicken, 35% of turkey, 20% of beef, 29% of pork, and 23% of the edible portion of eggs). If consumers wasted less food, they would purchase less meat/eggs/dairy, which would lead to fewer animals suffering on factory farms.

One factor that could be driving food waste is confusing date labeling. For example, an egg container may have a 'Sell By' date meant to help retailers manage their inventory, but a consumer who sees the label and date some time after purchasing might throw the eggs away thinking they are no longer safe to eat. One possible solution is a federal labeling law that limits producers to listing the freshness date and the expiration date (and requires them to use specific easy to understand phrases when listing either). However, there are several reasons that working towards such a law may be a bad use of resources. First, legal change may be unnecessary as it appears the food industry may voluntarily adopt such a system. Second, it's unclear how much labeling reform reduces food waste (I was unable to find any studies in my brief search). Third, it may be that the primary benefits of reducing animal product consumption are the long term effects, in which case reductions in consumption driven by factors other than concern for animals may be much less impactful. Of course, there may also be other ways to reduce food waste (to which the first two concerns would not apply).

In response to Open Thread #40
Comment author: RandomEA 09 July 2018 12:34:23AM *  5 points [-]

Requesting Help for a Compilation of Top EA Facebook Posts

In December 2015, Claire Zabel posted links to all posts in the EA Facebook group with 50 or more likes or comments. I think it's time for a similar post. From what I understand, the most liked and most commented on posts can be found using the "My groups dashboard" feature on Facebook. Unfortunately, I do not have a Facebook account. I am posting in this thread to request that someone with a Facebook account post the most liked and most commented on posts as a reply to this comment. I can then go through each of them and extract the key information about each (see below) so people can see if there are any they want to read without clicking every single one. I would then post this information as its own forum post. Alternatively, you can do the extracting yourself and post it as a forum post yourself.

Format

  • Author: Initials are used to prevent future employers from easily associating the post with the author (unless the person is a prominent EA who is likely to remain in EA, in which case the full name is used).
  • Year: This can give people context as various ideas have become more or less accepted over time.
  • Text: If the full text is too long, an excerpt is chosen that encapsulates the post.
  • URL: This allows people to read the post for themselves.
  • Link Title: This helps people decide whether to click on the link.
  • Link Author: This is included when the identity of the author is relevant (generally only when the author is an EA).
  • Link URL: This allows people to go directly to the link without having to go to the post first.

You can see examples of this formatting below.

Posts with the Most Likes as of December 2015 (based on Claire Zabel's comment)

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

Posts with the Most Comments as of December 2015 (based on Claire Zabel's comment)

1) Unable to access

2)

3)

4)

5)

Comment author: RandomEA 15 June 2018 01:55:55AM *  3 points [-]

But what if it were chicken?

A key part undermining the cost-effectiveness is that each pig produces so much pork. If we re-run the numbers assuming that the study was talking about chicken instead of pork and had the same results, but adjusted all the other numbers to be about chicken, we get $5.70 per chicken spared (90% interval: $0.71 to $32) and $50 per chicken year (90% interval: 6.3 to 280). This is better, but presumably still not as good as helping humans (even from a complete species-neutral point of view). This is summarized in this additional Guesstimate model.

It appears that your model for chickens assumes that the amount of chicken eaten each time is the same as the amount of pork eaten each time and that the reduction in the number of times per month that chicken would be eaten is the same as the reduction in the number of times per month that pork was eaten. One potential problem with this assumption is that people each more chicken than pork: according to USDA statistics, in 2015, people ate, on average, 51.1 pounds of chicken but 'only' 31.4 pounds of pork. For your model to be accurate, it would have to be the case that showing videos of animal mistreatment reduces the amount eaten by a similar magnitude across different products regardless of the baseline amount eaten. It seems more likely to me that videos would reduce amount eaten by a similar proportion such that the reduction would be greater for products with a higher baseline amount eaten. If this is correct, then the reduction in the amount of chicken eaten would be 1.627 times what you estimated [51.1 pounds / 31.4 pounds].^^ This means that the cost per chicken spared and the cost per chicken year spared should be multiplied by 0.615 [1 / 1.627] to account for people reducing their consumption of chicken more (in absolute terms).

^^You might think the ratio should be set higher if you think that the Animal Equality audience has a higher than average chicken consumed to pork consumed ratio.

We also have to account for the model using the carcass weight of chickens^^^ as the number of fewer pounds people have to eat to spare one chicken. As noted above (with respect to pigs), this approach seems wrong in that each fewer pound of chicken eaten likely results in more than one fewer pound of chicken carcass being produced. According to USDA statistics, in 2015, 103.9 pounds of chicken carcass were produced per person while only 51.1 pounds of chicken were eaten per person, meaning that 2.033 pounds of chicken carcass were produced per pound of chicken eaten [103.9 pounds / 51.1 pounds]. Assuming that one fewer pound of chicken being eaten resulted in 2.033 fewer pounds of chicken carcass being produced, the cost of sparing one chicken and the cost of sparing one chicken year need to be multiplied by 0.492 [1 / 2.033].

^^^I assume that "Amount of meat per chicken (lbs)" in your model refers to carcass weight as it does in the pig model. I make this assumption for two reasons. First, the phrase you used in the chicken model is similar to what you used in the pig model ("Amount of meat per pig (lbs)"), where that phrase refers to carcass weight. Second, the source you use for the pig model says that chickens have a mass of 2.5 kilograms and that their carcass after slaughter retains 75% of that mass, meaning that a chicken carcass is around 1.875 kilograms (4.134 pounds); 4.134 pounds is roughly the midpoint of your range of 3 pounds to 5 pounds, which makes me think that your number was based on the carcass number from that source.

Thus, to account for videos reducing chicken consumption by more than they reduce pork consumption (due to people eating more chicken) and to account for each fewer pound of chicken being eaten resulting in more than one fewer pound of chicken carcass being produced, your estimates should be multiplied by 0.303 [0.615 * 0.492]. This results in the cost of sparing a chicken being $1.73 [0.303 * $5.70] with a 90% interval from $0.22 [0.303 * $0.71] to $9.70 [0.303 * $32] and the cost of sparing a chicken year being $15.15 [0.303 * $50] with a 90% interval from $1.91 [0.303 * $6.30] to $84.84 [0.303 * $280].

You might also think that showing people a video about the treatment of chickens would reduce the amount of turkey eaten by the same proportion as it reduces the amount of chicken eaten. According to USDA statistics, Americans ate, on average, 7.9 pounds of turkey, which is 0.155 times how much chicken they ate [7.9 pounds / 51.1 pounds]. If only 0.155 times as many pounds of turkey are being saved per viewer, then you would have to show the video to 6.452 times as many viewers to save the same number of pounds of turkey [1 / 0.155].

Additionally, since turkey carcasses weigh 23.603 pounds (0.75 * 31.47 pounds) (compared to 3.9 pounds for chickens^^^^), you would have to show the video to 6.052 times as many viewers to spare the same number of turkeys [23.603 pounds / 3.9 pounds].^^^^^ This means that it costs 39.048 times as much to spare a turkey [6.452 * 6.052], which means that the cost of sparing one turkey is $67.55 [39.048 * $1.73] with a 90% interval from $8.59 [39.048 * $0.22] to $378.77 [39.048 * $9.70].^^^^^^

^^^^I use 3.9 pounds because that is what is used in the Guesstimate model for chickens and I am deriving the estimates for turkeys from the estimates for chickens.

^^^^^The percent of turkey carcass that is ultimately eaten (49.6%) is similar to the percent of chicken carcass that is ultimately eaten (49.1%).

^^^^^^I am assuming that the cumulative elasticity factor for turkey is similar to the cumulative elasticity factor for chicken. The Animal Charity Evaluators spreadsheet you cite reports similar estimated cumulative elasticity factors for chicken and turkey.

And since turkeys live around four months on factory farms, the cost of sparing one turkey year is $202.65 [3 * $67.55] with a 90% interval from $25.77 [3 * $8.59] to $1,136.31 [3 * $378.77].

Combining the chicken and turkey numbers, we get that the cost of sparing one bird is $1.69 [1 / (1 / $1.73 + 1 / $67.55)] with a 90% interval from $0.21 [1 / (1 / $0.22 + 1 / $8.59)] to $9.46 [1 / (1 / $9.70 + 1 / $378.77)] and the cost of sparing one bird year is $14.10 [1 / (1 / $15.15 + 1 / $202.65)] with a 90% interval from $1.78 [1 / (1 / $1.91 + 1 / $25.77)] to $78.77 [1 / (1 / $84.64 + 1 / $1,136.31)].

Finally, if you accept Halstead's argument that assuming persistence of 1 to 12 years (with a point estimate of 68 months) is too optimistic and that a more reasonable point estimate would be 6 months, then you would think that it costs 11.333 times the above estimates to spare an animal and to spare an animal year [68 / 6]. This would result in the cost of sparing a pig being $841.48 [11.333 * $74.25] with a 90% interval from $129.08 [11.333 * $11.39] to $3,141.51 [11.333 * $277.20] and the cost of sparing one pig year being $1,739.05 [11.333 * $153.45] with a 90% interval from $263.72 [11.333 * $23.27] to $6,170.82 [11.333 * $544.50]. It would also result in the cost of sparing a chicken being $19.61 [11.333 * $1.73] with a 90% interval from $2.49 [11.333 * $0.22] to $109.93 [11.333 * $9.70] and the cost of sparing a chicken year being $171.69 [11.333 * $15.15] with a 90% interval from $21.65 [11.333 * $1.91] to $961.49 [11.333 * $84.84]. It would additionally result in the cost of sparing a turkey being $765.54 [11.333 * $67.55] with a 90% interval from $97.35 [11.333 * $8.59] to $4,292.60 [11.333 * $378.77] and the cost of sparing a turkey year being $2,296.63 [11.333 * $202.65] with a 90% interval from $292.05 [11.333 * $25.77] to $12,877.80 [11.333 * $1,136.31]. Lastly, it would result in the cost of sparing a bird being $19.15 [11.333 * $1.69] with a 90% interval from $2.38 [11.333 * $0.21] to $107.21 [11.333 * $9.46] and the cost of sparing a bird year being $159.80 [11.333 * $14.10] with a 90% interval from $20.17 [11.333 * $1.78] to $892.70 [11.333 * $78.77].

[Throughout this comment and the parent comment, I've adjusted point estimates and 90% intervals simply by multiplying them by the adjustment factor. I'm unsure whether this approach is correct for 90% intervals.]

Comment author: RandomEA 15 June 2018 07:45:22AM *  3 points [-]

It's also interesting to compare the results from this Animal Equality study to the results from the previous Reducetarian Labs MTurk Study.

In the Reducetarian Labs study, you found that respondents reduced their consumption of chicken by an average of 1.127 servings a month [0.26 * 52 / 12]. (The estimate for the Animal Equality study is slightly higher at 1.399 servings a month [0.86 * 1.627].)

Assuming that the effect lasted six months, respondents ate, on average, 6.762 fewer servings of chicken [6 * 1.127 servings]. This means they ate, on average, 25.019 fewer ounces of chicken [3.7 * 6.762 ounces] (or 1.564 fewer pounds of chicken [25.019 ounces / 16]). Since any reduction in consumption is partially offset by others increasing their consumption (due to the reduction in consumption lowering prices), the net reduction in amount eaten was 0.594 pounds [0.38 * 1.564 pounds]. Making the same assumption I made in the parent comment, this reduction results in 1.208 fewer pounds of chicken carcass being produced [2.033 * 0.594 pounds]. This means that, on average, each respondent spared 0.292 chickens [1.208 pounds / 4.134 pounds] and 0.035 chicken years [0.12 * 0.292 chickens]. (By comparison, respondents in the Animal Equality study spared, on average, 0.362 chickens [0.292 / 1.127 * 1.399] and 0.043 chicken years [0.035 / 1.127 * 1.399].)

[The numbers used in the above paragraph are borrowed from the parent comment or your Guesstimate model.]

Assuming that it costs $0.35 to reach one person through leafletting or online ads (which seems to be the number you used in reporting the Reducetarian Labs study), it would cost $1.20 to spare a chicken [$0.35 * 1 / 0.292] and $10.00 to spare a chicken year [$0.35 * 1 / 0.035].

Why are these numbers so much lower than the numbers reported for the Animal Equality study? All numbers used for the estimate were the same except for consumption reduction per respondent and cost per respondent. Additionally, consumption reduction per respondent was very similar between the two studies. Thus, the difference is almost entirely due to cost per respondent: it costs $0.35 to reach a person through leafletting or online ads while it costs $3.30* to reach a person through in-person videos. Perhaps there's a lesson here: if two interventions have a roughly similar effect size but significantly different costs per person reached, choosing the lower cost intervention can greatly increase impact per dollar.

*In your Guesstimate model for pigs, you use a cost per person of $2.80 for 2D video and $2.90 for VR video. Why is the cost per person higher for chickens?

Finally, it's worth noting that the above analysis of the Reducetarian Labs study is limited to the respondents' reported reduction in consumption of chicken. (The respondents also reported reducing consumption of other animal products.)

Comment author: RandomEA 15 June 2018 01:52:51AM *  3 points [-]

How much pig is not eaten?

But how many pigs are saved when people eat pork 58 times less? Well, if we assume that each time someone eats pork they are eating 2 to 6 ounces of it and that a typical pig produces 200-230 pounds of meat, that means the typical person eating pork 58 less times will be eating one sixteenth less of a pig in their life (90% interval: 0.013 to 0.21).

...

Given that a typical pig lives about six months, each person in the treatment group is thus sparing ~1 week of pig suffering (90% interval: 1.3 days to 23.7 days).

...

So what’s the cost-effectiveness?

Given that a person can be reached for ~$2 and that they spare ~1 pig week, that works out to $150 per pig saved (90% interval: $23 to $560) and, again assuming that each pig has a ~6 month lifespan, that works out to $310 per pig year saved (90% interval: $47 to $1100). To put this in context, Against Malaria Foundation can avert a year of human suffering from malaria for $39[4], this does not look very cost-effective.

This is all summarized in this Guesstimate model.

The source that you cite for the amount of meat produced by a typical pig notes that the number it is using is the carcass weight.

There are four different weights:

  1. Primary weight: the weight of the carcass (part of which is non-edible)

  2. Retail weight: the weight of what is sold at the retail level

  3. Consumer weight: the weight of what is purchased by consumers (including institutions and food service establishments)

  4. Loss-adjusted availability: the weight of what is eaten by consumers

If I understand your model correctly, it assumes that 200 to 300 fewer pounds of pork would have to be eaten in order to spare one pig. This seems wrong to me because eating x pounds fewer meat means consumers purchasing x + y fewer pounds of meat which means retailers purchasing x + y + z fewer pounds of meat which means x + y + z + w fewer pounds of pig carcass produced. To correct for this, we have to figure out how many fewer pounds of pig carcass are produced for each fewer pound of pork that is eaten. For purposes of this comment, I will assume that the ratio of the reduction in the amount of pig carcass produced to the net^ reduction in the amount of pork eaten is the same as the ratio of the amount of pig carcass produced (per person) to the amount of pork eaten (per person).

^I say net reduction because a person who purchases less pork (due to eating less of it) will cause the price of pork to decrease which will cause others to purchase (and eat) more pork which will partially offset the reduction.

According to USDA statistics, during the year 2015, 63.5 pounds of pig carcass were produced per person while only 31.4 pounds of pork were eaten per person, meaning that 2.022 pounds of pig carcass were produced per pound of pork eaten [63.5 pounds / 31.4 pounds]. Assuming that one fewer pound of pork being eaten results in 2.022 fewer pounds of pig carcass being produced, the cost of sparing one pig and of sparing one pig year is 0.495 times what you originally estimated [1 / 2.022]. This means that the cost of sparing one pig is $74.25 [0.495 * $150] with a 90% interval from $11.39 [0.495 * $23] to $277.20 [0.495 * $560] and the cost of sparing one pig year is $153.45 [0.495 * $310] with a 90% interval from $23.27 [0.495 * $47] to $544.50 [0.495 * $1,100].

Comment author: RandomEA 15 June 2018 01:55:55AM *  3 points [-]

But what if it were chicken?

A key part undermining the cost-effectiveness is that each pig produces so much pork. If we re-run the numbers assuming that the study was talking about chicken instead of pork and had the same results, but adjusted all the other numbers to be about chicken, we get $5.70 per chicken spared (90% interval: $0.71 to $32) and $50 per chicken year (90% interval: 6.3 to 280). This is better, but presumably still not as good as helping humans (even from a complete species-neutral point of view). This is summarized in this additional Guesstimate model.

It appears that your model for chickens assumes that the amount of chicken eaten each time is the same as the amount of pork eaten each time and that the reduction in the number of times per month that chicken would be eaten is the same as the reduction in the number of times per month that pork was eaten. One potential problem with this assumption is that people each more chicken than pork: according to USDA statistics, in 2015, people ate, on average, 51.1 pounds of chicken but 'only' 31.4 pounds of pork. For your model to be accurate, it would have to be the case that showing videos of animal mistreatment reduces the amount eaten by a similar magnitude across different products regardless of the baseline amount eaten. It seems more likely to me that videos would reduce amount eaten by a similar proportion such that the reduction would be greater for products with a higher baseline amount eaten. If this is correct, then the reduction in the amount of chicken eaten would be 1.627 times what you estimated [51.1 pounds / 31.4 pounds].^^ This means that the cost per chicken spared and the cost per chicken year spared should be multiplied by 0.615 [1 / 1.627] to account for people reducing their consumption of chicken more (in absolute terms).

^^You might think the ratio should be set higher if you think that the Animal Equality audience has a higher than average chicken consumed to pork consumed ratio.

We also have to account for the model using the carcass weight of chickens^^^ as the number of fewer pounds people have to eat to spare one chicken. As noted above (with respect to pigs), this approach seems wrong in that each fewer pound of chicken eaten likely results in more than one fewer pound of chicken carcass being produced. According to USDA statistics, in 2015, 103.9 pounds of chicken carcass were produced per person while only 51.1 pounds of chicken were eaten per person, meaning that 2.033 pounds of chicken carcass were produced per pound of chicken eaten [103.9 pounds / 51.1 pounds]. Assuming that one fewer pound of chicken being eaten resulted in 2.033 fewer pounds of chicken carcass being produced, the cost of sparing one chicken and the cost of sparing one chicken year need to be multiplied by 0.492 [1 / 2.033].

^^^I assume that "Amount of meat per chicken (lbs)" in your model refers to carcass weight as it does in the pig model. I make this assumption for two reasons. First, the phrase you used in the chicken model is similar to what you used in the pig model ("Amount of meat per pig (lbs)"), where that phrase refers to carcass weight. Second, the source you use for the pig model says that chickens have a mass of 2.5 kilograms and that their carcass after slaughter retains 75% of that mass, meaning that a chicken carcass is around 1.875 kilograms (4.134 pounds); 4.134 pounds is roughly the midpoint of your range of 3 pounds to 5 pounds, which makes me think that your number was based on the carcass number from that source.

Thus, to account for videos reducing chicken consumption by more than they reduce pork consumption (due to people eating more chicken) and to account for each fewer pound of chicken being eaten resulting in more than one fewer pound of chicken carcass being produced, your estimates should be multiplied by 0.303 [0.615 * 0.492]. This results in the cost of sparing a chicken being $1.73 [0.303 * $5.70] with a 90% interval from $0.22 [0.303 * $0.71] to $9.70 [0.303 * $32] and the cost of sparing a chicken year being $15.15 [0.303 * $50] with a 90% interval from $1.91 [0.303 * $6.30] to $84.84 [0.303 * $280].

You might also think that showing people a video about the treatment of chickens would reduce the amount of turkey eaten by the same proportion as it reduces the amount of chicken eaten. According to USDA statistics, Americans ate, on average, 7.9 pounds of turkey, which is 0.155 times how much chicken they ate [7.9 pounds / 51.1 pounds]. If only 0.155 times as many pounds of turkey are being saved per viewer, then you would have to show the video to 6.452 times as many viewers to save the same number of pounds of turkey [1 / 0.155].

Additionally, since turkey carcasses weigh 23.603 pounds (0.75 * 31.47 pounds) (compared to 3.9 pounds for chickens^^^^), you would have to show the video to 6.052 times as many viewers to spare the same number of turkeys [23.603 pounds / 3.9 pounds].^^^^^ This means that it costs 39.048 times as much to spare a turkey [6.452 * 6.052], which means that the cost of sparing one turkey is $67.55 [39.048 * $1.73] with a 90% interval from $8.59 [39.048 * $0.22] to $378.77 [39.048 * $9.70].^^^^^^

^^^^I use 3.9 pounds because that is what is used in the Guesstimate model for chickens and I am deriving the estimates for turkeys from the estimates for chickens.

^^^^^The percent of turkey carcass that is ultimately eaten (49.6%) is similar to the percent of chicken carcass that is ultimately eaten (49.1%).

^^^^^^I am assuming that the cumulative elasticity factor for turkey is similar to the cumulative elasticity factor for chicken. The Animal Charity Evaluators spreadsheet you cite reports similar estimated cumulative elasticity factors for chicken and turkey.

And since turkeys live around four months on factory farms, the cost of sparing one turkey year is $202.65 [3 * $67.55] with a 90% interval from $25.77 [3 * $8.59] to $1,136.31 [3 * $378.77].

Combining the chicken and turkey numbers, we get that the cost of sparing one bird is $1.69 [1 / (1 / $1.73 + 1 / $67.55)] with a 90% interval from $0.21 [1 / (1 / $0.22 + 1 / $8.59)] to $9.46 [1 / (1 / $9.70 + 1 / $378.77)] and the cost of sparing one bird year is $14.10 [1 / (1 / $15.15 + 1 / $202.65)] with a 90% interval from $1.78 [1 / (1 / $1.91 + 1 / $25.77)] to $78.77 [1 / (1 / $84.64 + 1 / $1,136.31)].

Finally, if you accept Halstead's argument that assuming persistence of 1 to 12 years (with a point estimate of 68 months) is too optimistic and that a more reasonable point estimate would be 6 months, then you would think that it costs 11.333 times the above estimates to spare an animal and to spare an animal year [68 / 6]. This would result in the cost of sparing a pig being $841.48 [11.333 * $74.25] with a 90% interval from $129.08 [11.333 * $11.39] to $3,141.51 [11.333 * $277.20] and the cost of sparing one pig year being $1,739.05 [11.333 * $153.45] with a 90% interval from $263.72 [11.333 * $23.27] to $6,170.82 [11.333 * $544.50]. It would also result in the cost of sparing a chicken being $19.61 [11.333 * $1.73] with a 90% interval from $2.49 [11.333 * $0.22] to $109.93 [11.333 * $9.70] and the cost of sparing a chicken year being $171.69 [11.333 * $15.15] with a 90% interval from $21.65 [11.333 * $1.91] to $961.49 [11.333 * $84.84]. It would additionally result in the cost of sparing a turkey being $765.54 [11.333 * $67.55] with a 90% interval from $97.35 [11.333 * $8.59] to $4,292.60 [11.333 * $378.77] and the cost of sparing a turkey year being $2,296.63 [11.333 * $202.65] with a 90% interval from $292.05 [11.333 * $25.77] to $12,877.80 [11.333 * $1,136.31]. Lastly, it would result in the cost of sparing a bird being $19.15 [11.333 * $1.69] with a 90% interval from $2.38 [11.333 * $0.21] to $107.21 [11.333 * $9.46] and the cost of sparing a bird year being $159.80 [11.333 * $14.10] with a 90% interval from $20.17 [11.333 * $1.78] to $892.70 [11.333 * $78.77].

[Throughout this comment and the parent comment, I've adjusted point estimates and 90% intervals simply by multiplying them by the adjustment factor. I'm unsure whether this approach is correct for 90% intervals.]

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