Today, a few Bay Area EAs and myself are asking the question, "How can we measure whether the EA movement is winning?"
Intutively, deciding on a win condition seems important for answering this question. Most social movements appear to have win conditions. These win conditions refer to a state of the world that looks different from the world's present state, and they are often even implicit within the movement's name (e.g., abolishionism, animal rights).
What does winning look like for EA? And how do we know if we're winning?
Discuss!
Some possible criteria:
I like this list. We could improve on it by establishing a hierarchy of metrics.
1st Tier: more quantifiable and objective metrics which are also most strongly tied or correlated with direct impact.
2nd Tier: quantifiable metrics which aren't directly tied to increased impact, but are strongly expected to lead to increased impact. In this tier I include memberships which are expected to lead to more donations, and to overcome con... (read more)