15

Denise_Melchin comments on When causes multiply - Effective Altruism Forum

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (6)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Denise_Melchin 10 August 2018 01:21:15PM *  0 points [-]

What you're saying is correct if you're assuming that so far zero resources have been spent on x-risk reduction and global poverty. (Though that isn't quite right either: You can't compute an output elasticity if you have to divide by 0.)

But you are supposed to compare the ideal output elasticity ratio with how resources are being spent currently, those ratios are supposed to be equal locally. So using your example, if there were currently more than 1mil times as many resources spent on x-risk than global poverty, global poverty should be prioritised.

When I was running the numbers, my impression was that global wellbeing increases had a much bigger output elasticity than x-risk reduction. I found it a bit tricky to find numbers for global (not just EA) x-risk reduction efforts, so I'm not confident and also not confident how large the gap in resource spending is. 80k quotes $500 billion per year for resources spent on global wellbeing increases.