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turchin comments on Informational hazards and the cost-effectiveness of open discussion of catastrophic risks - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: turchin 23 June 2018 07:15:00PM 3 points [-]

That is absolutely right, and I am always discussing ideas with friends and advanced specialist before discussing them publicly. But doing this, I discovered two obstacles:

1) If the idea is really simple, it is likely not new, but in case of a complex idea not much people are able to properly evaluate it. Maybe if Bostrom will spend a few days analysing it, he will say "yes" or "no", but typically best thinkers are very busy with their own deadlines, and will not have time to evaluate the ideas of random people. So you are limited to your closer friends, who could be biased in favour of you and ignore the info-hazard.

2) "False negatives". This is the situation when a person thinks that the idea X is not an informational hazard because it is false. However, the reasons why he thinks that the idea X is false are wrong. In that situation, the info hazard assessment is not happening.