Jan_Kulveit comments on 80,000 Hours annual review released - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Jan_Kulveit 03 January 2018 09:54:41AM 1 point [-]

Sure, first 80k thought your counterfactual impact is "often negligible" due to replaceability, then they changed position toward replaceability being "very uncertain" in general. I don't think you can just remove it from the model completely.

I also don't think in the particular case of central EA organizations hiring the uncertainty is as big as in general / I'm uncertain about this, but my vague impression was there is a usually a selection of good candidates to choose from when they are hiring.