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Pablo_Stafforini comments on In defence of epistemic modesty - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Pablo_Stafforini 31 October 2017 08:59:50PM *  1 point [-]

In that comment I was saying that it seemed to me he was overshooting more than undershooting with the base rate for dysfunctionality in institutions/fields, and that he should update accordingly and check more carefully for the good reasons that institutional practice or popular academic views often (but far from always) indicate. That doesn't mean one can't look closely and form much better estimates of the likelihood of good invisible reasons, or that the base rate of dysfunction is anywhere near zero.

I offered that quote to cast doubt on Rob's assertion that Eliezer has "a really strong epistemic track record, and that this is good evidence that modesty is a bad idea." I didn't mean to deny that Eliezer had some successes, or that one shouldn't "look closely and form much better estimates of the likelihood of good invisible reasons" or that "the base rate of dysfunction is anywhere near zero", and I didn't offer the quote to dispute those claims.

Readers can read the original comment and judge for themselves whether the quote was in fact pulled out of context.

Comment author: Carl_Shulman 31 October 2017 09:18:57PM 1 point [-]

Please take my comment as explaining my own views, lest they be misunderstood, not condemning your citation of me.

Comment author: Pablo_Stafforini 31 October 2017 09:28:24PM *  1 point [-]

Okay, thank you for the clarification.

[In the original version, your comment said that the quote was pulled out of context, hence my interpretation.]