RobBensinger comments on In defence of epistemic modesty - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: RobBensinger 30 October 2017 01:14:06AM *  2 points [-]

The dichotomy I see the most at MIRI is 'one's inside-view model' v. 'one's belief', where the latter tries to take into account things like model uncertainty, outside-view debiasing for addressing things like the planning fallacy, and deference to epistemic peers. Nate draws this distinction a lot.

Comment author: Stefan_Schubert 30 October 2017 01:22:30AM *  3 points [-]

I guess you could make a trichotomy:

a) Your inside-view model.

b) Your all-things-considered private signal, where you've added outside-view reasoning, taken model uncertainty into account, etc.

c) Your all-things-considered belief, which also takes the views of your epistemic peers into account.