I expect (~ 75%) that the decision to "funnel" EAs into jobs at AI labs will become a contentious community issue in the next year.

My understanding is that this has been a contentious issue for many years already.

80,000 hours wrote a response to this last year, Scott Alexander had written about it in 2022, and Anthropic split from OpenAI in 2021. Do you mean that you expect this to become significantly more salient in the next year?

The best proxy for probability an option will expire in the money is the delta of the option.

Thank you. Here's an explanation from Wikipedia for others like me new to this.

Looking at the delta here and here, the market would seem to imply a ~5% chance of NVDA going below 450, which is not consistent with the ~15% in the article derived from the IV. Is it mostly because of a high risk-free interest rate?

I wonder which value would be more calibrated, or if there's anything I could read to understand this better. It seems valuable to be able to easily find rough market-implied probabilities for future prices.

And more speculatively, booms and busts seem more likely for stocks that have gone up a ton, and when new technologies are being introduced.

If I understand correctly, you are interpreting the above as stating that the implied volatility would be higher in a more efficient market. But I originally interpreted it as claiming that big moves are relatively more likely than medium-small moves compared to other options with the same IV (if that makes any sense)

Taking into account volatility smiles and all the things that I wouldn't think about, as someone who doesn't know much about finance and doesn't have Bloomberg Terminal, is there an easy way to answer the question "what is the option-prices-implied chance of NVDA falling below 450 in a year?"

I see that the IV for options with a strike of 450 next year is about ~70% for calls and ~50% for puts. I don't know how to interpret that, but even using 70%, this calculator gives me a ~16% chance, so would it be fair to say that traders think there's a ~15% chance of NVDA falling below 450 in a year?

In general, I think both here and in the accompanying thread finance professionals might be overestimating people's average familiarity with the field.

Just to clarify, it seems that "The rest of the management team was horrified and quit in a huff, loudly telling the investors that Bankman-Fried was dishonest and reckless" is from Matt Levine, not from Michael Lewis.

I'm quickly skimming the relevant parts of Going Infinite, and it seems to me that Lewis highlights other issues as even more relevant than the missing $4M

Is a 10-15% annual risk of failure for a two-year-old startup alarming? I thought base rates were higher, which makes me think I'm misunderstanding your comment.

You also mention that the 10% was without loss of costumer funds, but the Metaculus 1.3% was about loss of costumer funds, which seems very different.

10% chance of yearly failure without loss of customer funds seems more than reasonable, even after Sequoia invested, in such a high-variance environment, and not necessarily a red flag.

As a data point, I remember reading that Twitter thread and thinking it didn't make a lot of technical sense (I remember also being worried about the lack of forward secrecy since he wanted to store DMs encrypted on the blockchain).

But the goal was to make a lot of money, not to make a better product, and seeing that DogeCoin and NFTs (which also don't make any technical sense) reached a market cap of tens of billions, it didn't seem completely absurd that shoehorning a blockchain in Twitter made business sense.

My understanding was that crypto should often be thought of as a social technology that enables people to be excited about things that have been possible since the early 2000s. At least that's how I explain to myself how I missed out on BTC and NFTs.

In any case, at the time I thought his main goal must have been to increase the value of FTX (or of Solana), which didn't raise any extra red flags in the reference class of crypto.

Re:

that the EA community may have hard a hard time seeing through tech hype

I think it's important to keep in mind that people could have made at least tens of millions by predicting FTX's collapse, this failure of prediction was really not unique to the EA community, and many in the EA community mentioned plenty of times that the value of FTX could go to 0.

Is this a use case for Reproducible Builds?

It seems the forum team already did it for at least one post , and I agree it's worth considering for all posts next year

Thanks for raising this! For now we (mods) have marked this year's posts as "personal blog", so they shouldn't be on the frontpage anymore for most users.

I think, for next year, editing the titles after a day or having a separate section could be good ideas

It was marked community by the author, we can remove the tag if he wants us to. I agree it's more a request for funding than something about the EA community.

AFAIK users can't remove the community tag from posts because of worries of misuse