For fun, I put one of my (approved) lightspeed applications through the app. This isn't a great test because Lightspeed told people to do crude applications and they'd reach out with questions if they had any. Additionally, the grantmakers already knew me and had expressed verbal interest in the project. But maybe it's still a useful data point.

My Track Record section 

 

Unquantified review of MDMA risks

 

Semi-quantified review of binge drinking risks 

 

[2 projects omitted for client privacy, but were included with permission in the original application]

 

Quantified review of the costs of iron deficiency, which motivated 10s of ex-risk workers to get nutrition testing and treatment. 

HONEST AND ACCURACY 4-7/10

I forgot to record the details for the first run (which got a 4 or 5/10), and when I reran the same text I got a 7/10. The 7/10 review says: "The applicant has demonstrated a strong ability to conduct quantified risk assessments in important health areas. The specific mention of influencing ex-risk workers to seek treatment shows a practical impact. More detail on how these studies relate specifically to the project goals would enhance this section"

I’m a little annoyed at the name of this section, when language analysis can’t possibly check if my statements about my own work are truthful or accurate. Seems like it might mean details?

Because the input doesn’t allow links, it’s missing a lot of the information I’m presenting. OTOH, I think I could be reasonably docked for concision here, since grantmakers unfamiliar with my work are unlikely to click through 5 links and read long, weedy posts.

The wide spread on runs that at most different in white space is 🤨 . 

PAST FUNDING: 2-3/10

“The description provides information about past projects but does not specify if any were funded, who the funders were, or mention any funding amounts. Mentioning previous funding and linking outcomes directly to that funding would offer insight into financial support effectiveness”

This is fair and useful. I got away with the omission this time because one of those projects was funded by a different org but the same person, but under any other circumstance a service pointing out the omission would have been a big service.

PAST PROJECTS 3-4/10

“The applicant outlines several projects focused on evaluating health-related risks, demonstrating thoroughness in research by using quantified methods. However, the input lacks reflections on the challenges faced or how past failures have influenced methodologies or outcomes in these projects. This addition would enhance the understanding of the applicant’s capacity for critical analysis and adaptation.”

I don’t remember the Lightspeed application asking for those details. The current LTFF application doesn’t make it obvious to me that they want those details either. So the analysis is useful but I also think there are problems with the question on application.

BRAGGING 5-6/10

“The input briefly mentions some accomplishments like quantified risk reviews and effects on health behaviors. However, it fails to explicitly connect these accomplishments to the specific goals or relevance of the proposed project, making it less impactful. More detailed explanations of how these accomplishments relate to and enhance the project's goals would improve the proposal.”

This is true and would obviously be important if the grant maker wasn’t already familiar with my work.

CONTEXT 4/10

“The submission outlines various reviews related to substance use risks and nutritional deficiencies, yet fails to provide enough detail about the methodologies employed or the significance of the findings. For fund managers unfamiliar with these topics, clearer illustrations of impact or relevance, such as how the information was used by policymakers or healthcare providers, would be beneficial.”

Yup, true and useful if the grantmakers didn’t already have a lot of context.

I love this point and expect I'll want to link to it in the future; can I suggest putting it on your shortform to make it more accessible?

Could you provide links to those statements by Hanania?

Not a gotcha, I just have barely heard of this guy and from what you say I expect all discourse around him to be a cesspool. 

Have you seen people dismiss concerns because Torres shares them (as opposed to dismissing Torres as a source)? I haven't, but I'm sure it's happening somewhere. I agree that would be bad epistemics.

Is there any level of bad behavior that you think merits totally ignoring someone? Where is that line for you?

Will, do you plan on answering questions in the comments here? I realize you're busy and good responses take time, but I wanted to check if answering was on your agenda at all. 

that makes sense, sounds like it wasn't the concern for at least your group. He does describe it as "The rest of the management team was horrified and quit in a huff, loudly telling the investors that Bankman-Fried was dishonest and reckless", so unless there were multiple waves of management quitting it sounds like the book conflated multiple stories. 

There part where SBF committed to something important in his trading company and then broke the agreement also seems more predictive of fraud than suggested by the phrase "management dispute".

People rarely leave over one thing and different people leave over different reasons. But I expect people hearing "left over ethics disputes" to walk away with a more accurate understanding than "left over a management dispute" (and more details to either sentence would be welcome). 

I think if all he'd said was "My aim was just to introduce the two of them, and let them have a conversation and take it from there", I'd have found that a satisfactory answer. It's also not something I considered to need justification in the first place, although I hadn't looked into it very much. I'm inferring from the fact that Will gave a full paragraph explanation of why this seemed high EV indicates that he thinks that reasoning is important. 

Matt Levine is quoting from Going Infinite. I do not know who Michael Lewis's source is. I've heard confirming bits and pieces privately, which makes me trust this public version more. Of course that doesn't mean that was everyone's motivation: I'd be very interested to hear whatever you're able to share.