This raises the concern of whether 80,000 Hours should still recommend people to join OpenAI.

Yes, and the longer until this release the more we should update towards longer timelines

The prediction on Metaculus has barely moved for a year.

1. How much progress has been made relative to expectations and how does this affect which timelines are most likely?

Since the launch of GPT-4, the next relevant data point will be GPT-5. All the rest is ~noise. 

From yesterday's announcement, the most interesting thing is that they are making their newest model free (many people will cancel their paid subscriptions). This seems to indicate that they will launch GPT-5 soon, which will be available only for the paid tier.

I agree that this testimonial adds credibility to Epoch, but it raises concerns about whether their work has negative impacts.

I think it looks great! 👏👏

The only thing I'm uneasy about is the testimonial of an investor who's accelerating AI capabilities.

There's a small local group in my city but I didn't click with any of the attendees (mainly because of different levels of ambition).

A bit about me in case someone wants to connect 👋👋

I’m a SWE with 5 yoe working in early-stage startups. I’m quite ambitious about EA and I’m currently applying to Charity Entrepreneurship.

Some things I like: sports, concerts, startups, Twitter, Dwarkesh (huge fan), Derek Guy, walkable and cyclable cities, pedestrian streets, lentil dahl.

Joey has answered this before elsewhere

I haven't been able to find it. Do you remember where you read it?

cc: @Joey

Also, donating will help with persuading people to be more altruistic in general. In psychology you have this concept of a costly signal, which causes people to take your (related) ideas much more seriously.

Are you confident about this?

Donating an organ might seem quite extreme, possibly making the average person view you as 'very weird,' which could have the opposite effect.

The meat-eater problem is under-discussed.

I've spent more than 500 hours consuming EA content and I had never encountered the meat-eater problem until today.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/meat-eater-problem

(I had sometimes thought about the problem, but I didn't even know it had a name)