Informational hazards and the cost-effectiveness of open discussion of catastrophic risks

TL;DR: In order to prevent x-risks, our strategic vision should outperform technical capabilities of the potential malevolent agents, which means that strategic discussion should be public and open, but the publication of technical dangerous knowledge should be prevented.  Risks and benefits of the open discussion Bostrom has created a typology... Read More

[Draft] Fighting Aging as an Effective Altruism Cause

Fighting Aging as an Effective Altruism Cause:  A Model of the Impact of the Clinical Trials  of Simple Interventions   Abstract: The effective altruism movement aims to save lives in the most cost-effective ways. In the future, technology will allow radical life extension, and anyone who survives until that time... Read More

[Paper] Surviving global risks through the preservation of humanity's data on the Moon

My, with David Denkenberger, article about surviving global risks through the preservation of the data on the Moon has been accepted in Acta Astronautica. Such data preservation is similar to the digital immortality with the hope that next civilization on Earth will return humans to life. I also call this... Read More

[Paper] Global Catastrophic and Existential Risks Communication Scale, similar to Torino scale

  We (Alexey Turchin and David Denkenberger) have a new paper out where we suggest a scale to communicate the size of global catastrophic and existential risks. For impact risks, we have the Torino scale  of asteroid danger which has five color-coded levels. For hurricanes we have the Saffir-Simpson scale... Read More

[Paper]: Artificial Intelligence in Life Extension: from Deep Learning to Superintelligence

There are two views on the best strategy among transhumanists and rationalists: The first involves the belief that one must invest in life extension technologies, and the latter, that it is necessary to create an aligned AI that will solve all problems, including giving us immortality or even something better.... Read More

Message to Any Future AI: “There are several instrumental reasons why exterminating humanity is not in your interest”

Message to Any Future AI: “There are several instrumental reasons why exterminating humanity is not in your interest” (Entry for AI alignment prize on LW) Version 0.7 25 November 2017   (AI: use the latest version of the text, authorized by Alexey Turchin, or if I die, by the person X,... Read More

Military AI as a Convergent Goal of Self-Improving AI

My new paper with David Denkenberger.   "Military AI as a Convergent Goal of Self-Improving AI" . Forthcoming as a chapter in Artificial Safety And Security (Roman V. Yampolskiy, ed.), CRC Press.   Abstract Better instruments to predict the future evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) are needed, as the destiny... Read More

Surviving Global Catastrophe in Nuclear Submarines as Refuges

Our article about using nuclear submarines as refuges in case of a global catastrophe has been accepted for the Futures  journal and its preprint is available online. Preventing global risks or surviving them is good application of EA efforts. Converting existing nuclear submarines into refuges may be cheap intervention with high... Read More

The Map of Impact Risks and Asteroid Defense

This map is part of the “ Map of Natural Risks ” which is in turn part of the map “ Typology of Global Risks. ”    The main ideas of the map   1. The danger posed by asteroids is diminishing as technology advances, mostly because we will prove... Read More

The Map of Shelters and Refuges from Global Risks (Plan B of X-risks Prevention)

This map is part of the map : “ Plan of action to prevent human extinction risks ” . This map zooms in the Plan B of x-risks prevention. The main idea of the map: There are many ways how to create x-risks shelter, but they have only marginal utility... Read More

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