Comment author: turchin 09 December 2016 02:41:53PM 6 points [-]

I agree on your main premises - about importance of qualia, especially from the point of x-risks. For example, if humans will be uploaded, but without qualia, they will become p-zombies.

If qualia of extreme pleasure could be created and transferred, super-addictive drug epidemic will happen.

I have been thinking about qualia a lot and have some theories, but now I am concentrated on another topic.

Comment author: turchin 19 November 2016 06:33:15PM *  2 points [-]

My point of view: There were 3 possible outcomes of the election, H win, T win, no clear result. I used to think that the last is worst outcome, as it would result in civil war, end of progress etc. It still could happen if sides will increase mutual animosity. But it has very small probability.

Two other outcomes both could have positive and negative effects on x-risks. T-win negative outcomes are listed in the article, and I agree. Positive outcomes could be following: preventing nuclear war with Russian in short term and Thiel (who supports FAI) in the administration.

Negative outcome in case of H win: Higher probability of war with Russian over no-fly zone in Syria. Positive: everything else will be the same.

Disclaimer: I would vote for H if I can.

It may be also interesting to compare Trump-risk with risk of other leaders of nuclear powers, including Putin, Xi and Kim in North Korea, and even may be Le Pen (if she win) in France, Modi in India and Brexit.

Comment author: turchin 19 November 2016 06:20:38PM 2 points [-]

See also: What a Trump Presidency Means for Human Survival: One Expert’s Take
Phil Torres

Comment author: Denkenberger 13 November 2016 09:35:23PM 1 point [-]

That might work, though people would probably prefer fishing. But with a 10 km diameter impact, there probably would not be much fish or plankton.

Comment author: turchin 14 November 2016 12:53:40AM 0 points [-]

But may be some bacteria could still be suspended in the water as well as some organics?

Comment author: Denkenberger 07 November 2016 01:16:07PM 1 point [-]

Very nice! I would add another stage of defense of alternate foods. If we were actually prepared with these, then I don't think we would get civilization collapse for 1 km diameter and maybe not even for 10 km.

Comment author: turchin 07 November 2016 03:06:36PM 0 points [-]

I am now working on an article about submarines as possible refuges in case of a global catastrophe. One of idea I had for food provision for it is filtering of water to get plankton, the same ways as whale do it. What do you think about feasibility of such approach?


The Map of Impact Risks and Asteroid Defense

This map is part of the “ Map of Natural Risks ” which is in turn part of the map “ Typology of Global Risks. ”    The main ideas of the map   1. The danger posed by asteroids is diminishing as technology advances, mostly because we will prove... Read More
Comment author: Denkenberger 30 October 2016 12:30:59PM 2 points [-]

We have tried a little to engage with preppers. We wrote about them in our book. We know that all but the most extreme only have about one year of food storage, which would not last a five or 10 year nuclear winter. They tend to be focused on their families and local communities. Some of them are concerned about non-science-based risks. I did give a webinar to the American Preppers Network emphasizing the alternate foods that could be done on a household scale (and cheaper than food storage). They could help by testing out alternate foods, but I have never heard of any of them doing that.

Comment author: turchin 31 October 2016 10:33:04PM 1 point [-]

How long is your home supply? My is something like 5-10 days, but I cary month supply in my belly )))

There is also community who discuss stockpiling in case of flu pandemic, but you probably know them.

11 my relatives had been starving in Sankt-Peterburg during WW2, so I was grown on the legends about it.

Comment author: casebash 24 October 2016 07:32:58PM 2 points [-]

This is excellent work. I'm curious, how long did this take you? Are you just doing this by yourself or are you a researcher?

Comment author: turchin 24 October 2016 08:03:11PM 3 points [-]

I wrote couple of books in Russian about x-risks several years ago, and in takes several years to come to most of the ideas in this and other maps, but I decided to completely rewrite what I did in books and transform into maps as it would be more contemporary form of information presentation.

It took around one week to make one map if I work 6 hours a day. I did around 30 maps and plan more.

I work in Foundation for Life extension based in Moscow and think about my self as of researcher. I have several academic publications in Russian magazines on x-risks topics.

Other my maps are here:

Comment author: casebash 24 October 2016 07:29:12PM 2 points [-]

I wonder if it is worth the effort for EA to perform outreach to preppers/survivalists to spread ideas about existential risk?

Comment author: turchin 24 October 2016 07:33:47PM 1 point [-]

Maybe they are well aware about risks and do what they can? But it seems that they are preparing to the wrong catastrophes. If they collectively crowdfund MIRI or something like this, it would be substantial help.

Comment author: Denkenberger 24 October 2016 01:34:17PM 2 points [-]

Nice! Though preppers are a less extreme version of survivalists, there are supposedly about 3 million preppers just in the US. In independent shelters, food should be produced by chemical synthesis, not photosynthesis: Also, if underground, the heat could be dissipated into the surrounding rock for decades or into the flowing groundwater.

Comment author: turchin 24 October 2016 02:00:47PM 1 point [-]

Thanks for the ideas. I will add preppers into the map.

What to you think of the negative side of refuges? They could be used by terrorists who want to exterminate other people on earth, or used as military command centers and places to preserve some WMD?

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