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Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes

Our paper "Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes" is published  in Foresight. The preprint is here .   This article continues a series of articles which explore the  plan B of global risks mitigation which is an attempt to survive a possible global catastrophe (where plan A is prevention, and plan... Read More
Comment author: kbog  (EA Profile) 10 December 2016 04:21:00AM 0 points [-]
Comment author: turchin 08 July 2018 02:09:55PM 0 points [-]

What if AI exploring moral uncertainty finds that there is provably no correct moral theory or right moral facts? It that case, there is no moral uncertainty between moral theories, as they are all false. Could it escape this obstacle just by aggregating human's opinion about possible situations?

Comment author: WillPearson 27 June 2018 07:50:21PM *  0 points [-]

For people outside of EA, I think those who are in possession of info hazard-y content are much more likely to be embedded in some sort of larger institution (e.g., a research scientist or a journal editor looking to publish something), where perhaps the best leverage is setting up certain policies, rather than trying to teach everyone the unilateralist's curse.

There is a growing movement of maker's and citizen scientists that are working on new technologies. It might be worth targeting them somewhat (although again probably without the math). I think the approaches for ea/non-ea seem sensible.

You're right, strict consensus is the wrong prescription. A vote is probably better. I wonder if there's mathematical modeling that you could do that would determine what fraction of votes is optimal, in order to minimize the harms of the standard unilateralist's curse and the curse in reverse? Is it a majority vote? A 2/3s vote? l suspect this will depend on what the "true sign" of releasing the potentially dangerous info is likely to be; the more likely it is to be negative, the higher bar you should be expected to clear before releasing.

I also like to weigh the downside of the lack of releasing the information as well. If you don't release information you are making everyone make marginally worse decisions (if you think someone will release it anyway later). For example in the nuclear fusion example, you think that everyone currently building new nuclear fission stations are wasting their time, that people training on how to manage coal plants should be training on something else etc, etc.

I also have another consideration which is possibly more controversial. I think we need some bias to action, because it seems like we can't go on as we are for too much longer (another 1000 years might be pushing it). The level of resources and coordination towards global problems fielded by the status quo seems insufficient. So it is a default bad outcome.

With this consideration, going back to the fusion pioneers, they might try and find people to tell so that they could increase the bus factor (the number of people that would have to die to lose the knowledge). They wouldn't want the knowledge to get lost (as it would be needed in the long term) and they would want to make sure that whoever they told understood the import and potential downsides of the technology.

Edit: Knowing the sign of an intervention is hard, even after the fact. Consider the invention and spread of the knowledge about nuclear chain reactions. Without it we would probably be burning a lot more fossil fuels, however with it we have the existential risk associated with it. If that risk never pays out, then it may have been a spur towards greater coordination and peace.

I'll try and formalise these thoughts at some point, but I am bit work impaired for a while.

Comment author: turchin 28 June 2018 10:08:13AM -1 points [-]

One more problem with the idea that I should consult my friends first before publishing a text is a "friend' bias": people who are my friends tend to react more positively on the same text than those who are not friends. I personally had a situation when my friends told me that my text is good and non-info-hazardous, but when I presented it to people who didn't know me, their reaction was opposite.

Comment author: WillPearson 25 June 2018 07:12:53PM *  2 points [-]

Ah right. I suppose the unilateralist's curse is only a problem insofar as there are a number of other actors also capable of releasing the information; if you are a single actor then the curse doesn't really apply. Although one wrinkle might be considering the unilateralist's curse with regards to different actors through time (i.e., erring on the side of caution with the expectation that other actors in the future will gain access to and might release the information), but coordination in this case might be more challenging.

Interesting idea. This may be worth trying to develop more fully?

Probably it's best to discuss privately with a number of other trusted individuals first, who also understand the unilateralist's curse,

I'm still coming at this from a lens of "actionable advice for people not in ea". It might be that the person doesn't know many other trusted individuals, what should be the advice then? It would probably also be worth giving advice on how to have the conversation as well. The original article gives some advice on what happens if consensus can't be reached (voting/such like).

As I understand it you shouldn't wait for consensus else you have the unilateralist's curse in reverse. Someone pessimistic about an intervention can block the deployment of an intervention needed to avoid disaster (this seems very possible if you consider crucial considerations flipping signs, rather than just random noise in beliefs in desirability).

Would you suggest discussion and vote (assuming no other courses of action can be agreed upon)? Do you see the need to correct for status quo bias in any way?

This seems very important to get right. I'll think about this some more.

Comment author: turchin 26 June 2018 09:30:03AM -1 points [-]

Sometimes, when I work on a complex problem, I feel as if I become one of the best specialists in it. Surely, I know three other people who are able to understand my logic, but one of them is dead, another is not replying on my emails and the third one has his own vision, affected by some obvious flaw. So none of them could give me correct advice about the informational hazard.

Comment author: turchin 25 June 2018 11:51:54AM 3 points [-]

It would be great to have some kind of a committee for info-hazards assessment, like a group of trusted people who will a) will take responsibility to decide whether the idea should be published or not b) will read all incoming suggestions in timely manner с) their contacts (but may be not all the personalities) will be publicly known.

Comment author: Flodorner 25 June 2018 07:25:24AM 2 points [-]

"to prove this argument I would have to present general information which may be regarded as having informational hazard"

Is there any way to assess the credibility of statements like this (or whether this is actually an argument worth considering in a given specific context)? It seems like you could use this as a general purpose argument for almost everything.

Comment author: turchin 25 June 2018 11:47:21AM 0 points [-]

It was in fact a link on the article about how to kill everybody using multiple simultaneous pandemics - this idea may be regarded by someone as an informational hazard, but it was already suggested by some terrorists from Voluntary Human extinction movement. I also discussed with some biologists and other x-risks researchers and we concluded that it is not an infohazard. I can send you a draft.

Comment author: WillPearson 23 June 2018 09:12:57PM 0 points [-]

The unilateralists curse only applies if you expect other people to have the same information as you right?

You can figure out if they have the same information as you to see if they are concerned about the same things you are. By looking at the mitigation's people are attempting. Altruists should be attempting mitigations in a unilateralist's curse position, because they should expect someone less cautious than them to unleash the information. Or they want to unleash the information themselves and are mitigating the downsides until they think it is safe.

At the very least, you should privately discuss with several others and see if you can reach a consensus.

I've not had the best luck reaching out to talk to people about my ideas. I expect that the majority of new ideas will come from people not heavily inside the group and thus less influenced by group think. So you might want to think of solutions that take that into consideration.

Comment author: turchin 24 June 2018 10:21:14AM 0 points [-]

I've not had the best luck reaching out to talk to people about my ideas. I expect that the majority of new ideas will come from people not heavily inside the group and thus less influenced by group think. So you might want to think of solutions that take that into consideration.

Yes, I met the same problem. The best way to find people who are interested and are able to understand the specific problem is to publish the idea openly in a place like this forum, but in that situation, hypothtical bad people also will be able to read the idea.

Also, info-hazard discussion applies only to "medium level safety reserachers", as top level ones have enough authority to decide what is the info hazard, and (bio)scientists are not reading our discussions. As result, all fight with infor hazards is applied to small and not very relevant group.

For example, I was advised not to repost the a scientific study as even reposting it would create the informational hazard in the form of attracting attention to its dangerous applications. However, I see the main problem on the fact that such scinetific research was done and openly published, and our relactance to discuss such events only lower our strategic understanding of the different risks.

Comment author: ofer 23 June 2018 03:29:17PM *  6 points [-]

In this FLI podcast episode, Andrew Critch suggested handling a potentially dangerous idea like a software update rollout procedure, in which the update is distributed gradually rather than to all customers at once:

... I would tell you the same thing I would tell anyone who discovers a potentially dangerous idea, which is not to write a blog post about it right away.

I would say, find three close, trusted individuals that you think reason well about human extinction risk, and ask them to think about the consequences and who to tell next. Make sure you’re fair-minded about it. Make sure that you don’t underestimate the intelligence of other people and assume that they’ll never make this prediction

...

Then do a rollout procedure. In software engineering, you developed a new feature for your software, but it could crash the whole network. It could wreck a bunch of user experiences, so you just give it to a few users and see what they think, and you slowly roll it out. I think a slow rollout procedure is the same thing you should do with any dangerous idea, any potentially dangerous idea. You might not even know the idea is dangerous. You may have developed something that only seems plausibly likely to be a civilizational scale threat, but if you zoom out and look at the world, and you imagine all the humans coming up with ideas that could be civilizational scale threats.

...

If you just think you’ve got a small chance of causing human extinction, go ahead, be a little bit worried. Tell your friends to be a little bit worried with you for like a day or three. Then expand your circle a little bit. See if they can see problems with the idea, see dangers with the idea, and slowly expand, roll out the idea into an expanding circle of responsible people until such time as it becomes clear that the idea is not dangerous, or you manage to figure out in what way it’s dangerous and what to do about it, because it’s quite hard to figure out something as complicated as how to manage a human extinction risk all by yourself or even by a team of three or maybe even ten people. You have to expand your circle of trust, but, at the same time, you can do it methodically like a software rollout, until you come up with a good plan for managing it. As for what the plan will be, I don’t know. That’s why I need you guys to do your slow rollout and figure it out.

Comment author: turchin 23 June 2018 07:15:00PM 3 points [-]

That is absolutely right, and I am always discussing ideas with friends and advanced specialist before discussing them publicly. But doing this, I discovered two obstacles:

1) If the idea is really simple, it is likely not new, but in case of a complex idea not much people are able to properly evaluate it. Maybe if Bostrom will spend a few days analysing it, he will say "yes" or "no", but typically best thinkers are very busy with their own deadlines, and will not have time to evaluate the ideas of random people. So you are limited to your closer friends, who could be biased in favour of you and ignore the info-hazard.

2) "False negatives". This is the situation when a person thinks that the idea X is not an informational hazard because it is false. However, the reasons why he thinks that the idea X is false are wrong. In that situation, the info hazard assessment is not happening.

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Informational hazards and the cost-effectiveness of open discussion of catastrophic risks

TL;DR: In order to prevent x-risks, our strategic vision should outperform technical capabilities of the potential malevolent agents, which means that strategic discussion should be public and open, but the publication of technical dangerous knowledge should be prevented.  Risks and benefits of the open discussion Bostrom has created a typology... Read More
Comment author: Lila 27 May 2018 12:01:16AM 0 points [-]

Metformin isn't a supplement though. It's unlikely it would ever get approved as a supplement or OTC, especially given that it has serious side effects.

Comment author: turchin 27 May 2018 10:08:03AM 0 points [-]

That is why I think that we should divide discussion in two lines: One is the potential impact of simple interventions in life extension, which are many, and another is, is it possible that metformin will be such simple intervention.

In case of metformin, there is a tendency to prescribe it to the larger share of the population, as a first line drug of diabetes 2, but I think that its safety should be personalized by some genetic tests and bloodwork for vitamin deficiency.

Around 30 mln people in US or 10 per cent of the population already have diabetes 2 (https://www.healthline.com/health/type-2-diabetes/statistics) and this population share is eligible for metformin prescriptions.

This means that we could get large life expecting benefits replacing prescription drugs not associated with longevity - with longevity associated drugs for the same condition, like metformin for diabetes, lazortan for hypertension, aspirin for blood thining etc.

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