Comment author: purplepeople 01 September 2017 08:24:30PM 5 points [-]

The last chapter of Global Catastrophic Risks (Bostrom and Circovic) covers global totalitarianism. Among other things they mention how improved lie-detection technology, anti-aging research (to mitigate risks of regime change), and drugs to increase docility in the population could plausibly make a totalitarian system permanent and stable. Obviously an unfriendly AGI could easily do this as well.

In response to Open Thread #38
Comment author: WillPearson 22 August 2017 10:19:04AM 3 points [-]

I've been reading Superforecasting and my take away is that to have good predictions at the world you need to have a multiplicity of view points and quantify and breakdown the estimates fermi-style.

So my question is, has there been any collective attempts at model building for prediction purposes? Try and get all the hedgehogs together with their big ideas and synthesize them to form a collective fox-y model?

I know there are prediction markets, but you don't know what information that a price has synthesized so it is hard to bet on them, if you only have a small bit of information and do not think you know better than the market as a whole.

It would seem that if we could share a pool of predictive power between us we could make better decisions about how to intervene in the world.

Comment author: purplepeople 22 August 2017 07:47:05PM 0 points [-]

That's an interesting point about prediction markets. We individuals tend to invest in the stock market even when we know the market as a whole is wiser than us as individuals, because on the whole the market goes up, and anyways there are ways to track overall market performance. For prediction markets, I suppose there would need to be similar incentives somehow, otherwise every individual who doesn't have special information would be better off predicting what the overall market predicts, which doesn't help.

I'm guessing I just don't understand how prediction markets work. Hoping someone will correct me.

Comment author: RandomEA 06 August 2017 03:28:05AM 2 points [-]

If EAs decide to lobby state legislatures, they should focus on Pennsylvania and Florida, the two swing states where a significant proportion of voters use a Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) voting machine without a Voter Verified Paper Audit Trial (VVPAT):

Comment author: purplepeople 11 August 2017 12:18:52AM 1 point [-]

For people who know how politics works: are petitions ever effective? Or writing letters to people-who-matter? Or something else?

Comment author: purplepeople 10 August 2017 06:16:40PM 1 point [-]

Nitpick: On the "How" tab of the site, it should be "Humanity's autonomy", not "Humanities autonomy".

Comment author: DonyChristie 06 August 2017 04:10:35PM 2 points [-]

It's always great to see a new cause analysis! It would be cool to see some math of the utility/importance of this (you may know Guesstimate is a great tool for this :D), and I echo the desire to see tractable steps and an analysis of what effects the intervention(s) could have. I'm also curious where you think most of the disutility from electronic ballots comes from: the candidate that is elected or the perception that the election was hacked? If the former, I'd guess that many people here including me flag an intuitive penalty on cause areas/interventions that involve partisan politics due to its zero-sum, man vs. man, mindkilling nature. It seems likely that politics will naturally try to butt its head into our business and absorb attention, more than it deserves.

Here is a site dedicated to this. Try contacting them if you desire to research the subject further!

Comment author: purplepeople 10 August 2017 05:48:08PM 1 point [-]


And you're right, I want to apologize for my partisan framing of an issue which really need not be partisan. Paper ballots should be required regardless of the current situation, at least from what I understand.


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Comment author: purplepeople 17 December 2016 06:59:32PM 3 points [-]

This is an excellent post. I've been struggling myself to understand to what extend deontological values and the inherent irrationality of humans need to be factored into consequentialist decision making. I've become more and more convinced that values and social norms matter much more than I had previously thought.

Comment author: purplepeople 10 November 2016 08:19:33PM 4 points [-]

If we pull the camera back far enough, my guess is in a generation or two America will be on a good track again, so long as Trump doesn't start a war or use our nuclear warheads. As the White House Press Secretary said, the institutions of the U.S. have survived a civil war, 2 world wars, and the Great Depression. This will be a bad 4 years with adverse consequences on the rest of the world. Putin will be on the offensive, both in reality and in cyberspace. And U.S. carbon emissions will increase. But I still believe AI risk is the most dangerous threat to humanity.

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