Comment author: eFish  (EA Profile) 12 August 2018 04:12:45PM *  1 point [-]

In Morality, Foresight, and Human Flourishing: An Introduction to Existential Risks the author Phil Torres mentions (in addition to FHI's informal 2008 survey) that

"the philosopher John Leslie argues that we have a 30 percent chance of extinction in the next five centuries"

and that

"the cosmologist Martin Rees writes in a 2003 book that civilization has a 50-50 chance of surviving the present century."

The book also references Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock, which is now (as of 2018) as close to "midnight" as it was in 1953.

Comment author: eFish  (EA Profile) 09 July 2018 11:11:01PM 0 points [-]

I would recommend to not consume alcohol at all. (In my experience, a total abstinence is much easier than trying to not exceed a small limit.)