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Modesty and diversity: a concrete suggestion

In online discussions, the number of upvotes or likes a contribution receives is often highly correlated with the social status of the author within that community. This makes the community less epistemically diverse, and can contribute to feelings of groupthink or hero worship . Yet both the author of a... Read More
17

Oxford Prioritisation Project Review

By Jacob Lagerros and Tom Sittler. Cross- posted to Tom's website.  Short summary The Oxford Prioritisation Project was a research group between January and May 2017. The team conducted research to allocate £10,000 in the most impactful way, and published all our work on our blog . Tom Sittler was... Read More
9

How much donation splitting is there, and should you split?

Cross-posted from my blog . Table of contents Table of contents Summary Many of us split Individual examples EA funds data Naive approach: distribution of allocation percentages Less naive apprach: weighted distribution of allocation percentages Best approach: user totals Other data Arguments for splitting Empirical uncertainty combined with risk aversion... Read More
10

QALYs/$ are more intuitive than $/QALYs

Cross-posted from my blog . Summary Cost-effectiveness estimates are often expressed in $/QALYs instead of QALYs/$. But QALYs/$ are preferable because they are more intuitive. To avoid small numbers, we can renormalise to QALYs/$10,000, or something similar. Cost-effectiveness estimates are often expressed in $/QALYs. Four examples: GiveWell, “Errors in DCP2... Read More
6

Four quantitative models, aggregation, and final decision - Oxford Prioritisation Project

By Tom Sittler, Director Cross-posted to the Oxford Prioritisation Project blog . We're centralising all discussion on the Effective Altruism forum. To discuss this post, please comment here. Summary: Congratulations to 80,000 Hours for winning the £10,000 Oxford Prioritisation Project grant! This is a summary post about our final grant... Read More
5

A model of 80,000 Hours - Oxford Prioritisation Project

By Sindy Li, Fellow. Created: 2017-05-12 Cross-posted from the Oxford Prioritisation Project blog . We're centralising all discussion on the Effective Altruism forum. To discuss this post, please comment here. Summary: We built a quantitative model estimating the impact of 80,000 Hours. To measure our uncertainty, we built the model... Read More
5

Expected value estimates we (cautiously) took literally - Oxford Prioritisation Project

By Tom Sittler, Director Cross-posted from the Oxford Prioritisation Project blog . We're centralising all discussion on the Effective Altruism forum. To discuss this post, please comment here. Summary: This post describes how we turned the cost-effectiveness estimates of our four shortlisted organisations into a final decision. In order to... Read More
2

A model of Animal Charity Evaluators - Oxford Prioritisation Project

By Dominik Peters, Fellow (with Tom Sittler) Created: 2017-05-13 Cross-posted from the Oxford Prioritisation Project blog . We're centralising all discussion on the Effective Altruism forum. To discuss this post, please comment here. Summary. We describe a simple simulation model for the recommendations of a charity evaluator like Animal Charity Evaluators... Read More
2

A model of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute - Oxford Prioritisation Project

By Sindy Li, Fellow Created: 2017-05-12 Cross-posted from the Oxford Prioritisation Project blog . We're centralising all discussion on the Effective Altruism forum. To discuss this post, please comment here. Summary: We built a quantitative model estimating the impact of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. To measure our uncertainty, we... Read More
4

Modelling the Good Food Institute - Oxford Prioritisation Project

By Dominik Peters Cross-posted from the Oxford Prioritisation Project blog . Created 2017-04-18. Revised 2017-05-19. We're centralising all discussion on the Effective Altruism forum. To discuss this post, please comment here. We have attempted to build a quantitative model to estimate the impact of the Good Food Institute (GFI). We... Read More

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