Upvote. This is a very nice analysis, and something I personally have been missing for a long time.
Regarding the PR-problem: it is worth noting that if the EA-movement has a negative net effect on total well-being - for example because of animal suffering resulting from encouraging human-centred aid - then it might be a good thing for the EA-movement to suffer such a problem. After all, if our movement shrinks in such a scenario, this increases total well-being. For this reason, whether the "PR-problem" is good or bad depends on the results of precisely these kinds of analyses.
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