Comment author: Milan_Griffes 13 February 2018 03:18:38PM 0 points [-]

I donated 92% to the donor lottery, 8% to GiveDirectly.

Also made a "fuzzies" donation to the meditation group I attend.

Comment author: Milan_Griffes 09 February 2018 01:27:23AM 0 points [-]

When is the next round of EA grants opening?

Are you considering accepting applications on a rolling basis?

Comment author: landon 06 February 2018 04:44:29PM 0 points [-]

Hey I think this is really cool. Do you have any other recommended reading that's similar to this? I'm really interested in improving mental health and increasing joy as it compares to reducing suffering through other means, like most of EA focuses on.

Comment author: Milan_Griffes 06 February 2018 10:54:53PM 0 points [-]

Jon Kabat-Zinn's Full Catastrophe Living is the best book on MBSR. It sorta drags in the middle though – I recommend reading the first third & using the rest as a reference.

Comment author: Peter_Hurford  (EA Profile) 31 January 2018 03:41:02PM *  14 points [-]

I also find it more instructive to think of it in terms of percentages -- the Global Development fund still holds 49% of all money it has received all time, the far future fund holds 95%, and the community fund holds 71%.

There can definitely be good reasons for this (such as more merits for giving later vs. giving now, or saving up to give a larger grant in one big batch). I don't know whether it's an intentional application of one of those two things or just that Nick and Ellie are exceptionally busy and have more important priorities than the EA Funds, but it would be nice for more transparency as to why funds are distributed the way they are. (Lewis does a good job at this.)

Comment author: Milan_Griffes 01 February 2018 03:22:29AM 0 points [-]

Minor typo: it's "Elie" not "Ellie"

Comment author: Khorton 22 January 2018 09:53:04AM 2 points [-]

It might be difficult to estimate the likelihood of the N Korean population overthrowing their government, and how much of a difference each flash drive makes, but I'd be interested to see an estimate as well if someone wants to try.

Comment author: Milan_Griffes 22 January 2018 11:18:50PM 3 points [-]

Also complicated to assess the sign of a North Korean popular uprising. Depending on the geopolitical background, it seems like that could result in an overthrow of the regime, or a crackdown coupled with a more aggressive foreign policy stance (or some other outcome).

Comment author: Milan_Griffes 22 January 2018 11:06:42PM *  2 points [-]

Thanks for writing this up – the ceiling-cost estimate seems like a valuable tool for comparing interventions across different cause areas.

Second, I also assumed it would have an effect of 0.1 HALYs per person per year. This might be high, so let's assume it has a 1/10th of that impact.

0.01 HALY/person/year on average still seems quite high. We're estimating the average impact across a billion people, and any sort of systemic reform is going to have an enormous number of impacts (of varying magnitudes, in both directions). Attributing 0.01 HALY on average sorta assumes there aren't any really big negative impacts (more precisely, that any negative impacts are insubstantial compared to the positive impacts).

It also seems difficult to separate out the impacts that are appropriate to attribute to the systemic reform from all the other effects that are going on in the background.

All this is to say that I think arriving at believable average-impact estimates for systemic interventions is tricky. It's probably one of the harder parts of making good ceiling-cost estimates.

Comment author: Milan_Griffes 22 January 2018 10:34:41PM 2 points [-]

Maybe include the winners in the blurb so we don't have click through to the article?

Comment author: Lila 17 January 2018 05:51:44PM 1 point [-]

You might as well randomly go through the list of multimillionaires/billionaires and cold-call them. Maybe not the worst idea, but there's nothing in particular to suggest this guy would be special.

Comment author: Milan_Griffes 17 January 2018 07:10:44PM *  4 points [-]

That seems like not a bad idea, though probably not very tractable.

A couple things stand out here as special:

  • Missler suddenly came into a windfall, so probably is under a house money effect.
  • He's very young, so probably doesn't yet have a calcified theory about how to do good.
  • He's easy to contact (you can just shoot him a DM on facebook), which isn't true for most ultra-high-net-worth individuals.
Comment author: Khorton 13 January 2018 01:09:31AM 3 points [-]

That's what I expected to see when I clicked on the title: an actionable item. This would have been relevant if the be millionaire expressed interest in being contacted by strangers. However, it does not seem like that's the case, so it's not useful for many EAs to spend their time reading it.

Comment author: Milan_Griffes 17 January 2018 03:45:53PM *  3 points [-]

A more proactive stance seems appropriate here. Missler didn't say "please don't contact me," and has been open about his win on social media, so inquiries to see if he's aware of EA seem worth it. (It takes about 3 minutes to find & message them on facebook; payoff is a small chance of creating another value-aligned multimillionaire funder.)

In response to comment by Milan_Griffes on //
Comment author: MichaelPlant 17 January 2018 12:40:35PM 4 points [-]

The basic thrust is that psychedelic experiences can function as a catalytic engine for social change, both by improving the motivations of highly capable but insufficiently reflective people, and by improving the capabilities of well-intentioned people who struggle with internal blockers.

If that's what you think does the real work of drug liberalisation, you should probably state that and build a cost-effectiveness model on that basis, rather than try to justify drug reform on other terms but with that as the true motivation. I, for one, am pretty sceptical, because I can't imagine loads more people would, counterfactually, start taking drugs recreationally and that, for those that do, this will have much impact on their cognitive powers.

In response to comment by MichaelPlant on //
Comment author: Milan_Griffes 17 January 2018 03:33:54PM *  0 points [-]

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