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I'm an independent researcher working on EA topics (Global Priorities Research, Longtermism, Global Catastrophic Risks, and Economics).
Looking for collaborators, hires, job offers, or grant funding.
I can give advice and offer research collaborations.
it's AI generated w/ Gemini 1.5 Pro- I had initially indicated that but then had formatting issues and had to repaste and forgot about adding it - now fixed.
Reimagining Malevolence: A Primer on Malevolence and Implications for EA - AI Summary
This extensive post delves into the concept of malevolence, particularly within the context of effective altruism (EA).
Key points:
Defining Malevolence:
The post critiques the limitations of the Dark Triad/Tetrad framework and proposes the Dark Factor (D) as a more comprehensive model. D focuses on the willingness to cause disutility to others, encompassing traits like callousness, sadism, and vindictiveness.
The post also distinguishes between callousness (lack of empathy) and antagonism (active desire to harm), and further differentiates reactive antagonism (vengefulness) from instrumental antagonism (premeditated harm for personal gain).
Why Malevolence Persists:
Despite its negative consequences, malevolence persists due to evolutionary factors such as varying environmental pressures, frequency-dependent selection, and polygenic mutation-selection balance.
Chaotic and lawless environments tend to favor individuals with malevolent traits, providing them with opportunities for power and survival.
Factors Amplifying Malevolence:
Recommendations for EA:
Great comment - thanks so much!
Regarding CCEI's effect of shifting deploy$ to RD&D$:
So you're right, there is indeed about an order of magnitude difference between the two estimates:
Thanks also for the astute observation about estimating expected cost-effectiveness in t/$ vs $/t. You raise excellent points and I agree it would be more elegant to estimate it as t/$ for the reasons you outlined.
I really appreciate you taking the time to engage substantively with the post.
AI Summary of the "Quick Update on Leaving the Board of EV" Thread (including comments):
Rebecca Kagan's resignation from the board of Effective Ventures (EV) due to disagreements regarding the handling of the FTX crisis has sparked an intense discussion within the Effective Altruism (EA) community. Kagan believes that the EA community needs an external, public investigation into its relationship with FTX and its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), to address mistakes and prevent future harm. She also calls for clarity on EA leadership and their responsibilities to avoid confusion and indirect harm.
The post generated extensive debate, with many community members echoing the call for a thorough, public investigation and postmortem. They argue that understanding what went wrong, who was responsible, and what structural and cultural factors enabled these mistakes is crucial for learning, rebuilding trust, and preventing future issues. Some point to the concerning perception gap between those who had early concerns about SBF and those who seemingly ignored or downplayed these warnings.
However, others raise concerns about the cost, complexity, and legal risks involved in conducting a comprehensive investigation. They worry about the potential for re-victimizing those negatively impacted by the FTX fallout and argue that the key facts may have already been uncovered through informal discussions.
Alternative suggestions include having multiple individuals with relevant expertise conduct post-mortems, focusing on improving governance and organizational structures, and mitigating the costs of speaking out by waiving legal obligations or providing financial support for whistleblowers.
The thread also highlights concerns about recent leadership changes within EA organizations. Some argue that the departure of individuals known for their integrity and thoughtfulness regarding these issues raises questions about the movement's priorities and direction. Others suggest that these changes may be less relevant due to factors such as the impending disbanding of EV or reasons unrelated to the FTX situation.
Lastly, the discussion touches on the concept of "naive consequentialism" and its potential role in the FTX situation and other EA decisions. The OpenAI board situation is also mentioned as an example of the challenges facing the EA community beyond the FTX crisis, suggesting that the core issues may lie in the quality of governance rather than a specific blind spot.
Overall, the thread reveals a community grappling with significant trust and accountability issues in the aftermath of the FTX crisis. It underscores the urgent need for the EA community to address questions of transparency, accountability, and leadership to maintain its integrity and continue to positively impact the world.
What are the most surprising things that emerged from the thread?
Based on the summaries, a few surprising or noteworthy things emerged from the "Quick Update on Leaving the Board of EV" thread:
These surprising elements highlight the complex nature of the challenges facing the EA community and the diversity of opinions within the movement regarding the best path forward.
He did mention the head of the FTX foundation which was Nick Beckstead - not sure about the others, but would still seem weird for them to say it like that - maybe one of the younger staff members said something like 'I care more about the far future' or something along the lines of 'GiveDirectly is too risk averse'. but would still think he's painting quite the stereotype of EA here.
Pointing to white papers from think tanks that you fund isn't a good evidentiary basis to support the claim of R&D's cost effectiveness.
I cite a range of papers from the academia, government, and think tanks in the appendix. You don't cite anything either those are just like... your opinions no?
The R&D benefit for advanced nuclear since the 1970s has yielded a net increase in price for that technology
Are you saying the more we invest in R&D the higher the costs? I agree that nuclear is getting more expensive on net but that can still mean that R&D will drive the price down.
After that, all the technology gains came from scaling, not R&D.
What about the perovskite fever from the mid '10s?
Also there's a long lag with research.
And historic estimates are not necessarily indicative of future gains; we should expect diminishing returns.
Furthermore, most of the money in BIL and IRA were for demonstration projects - advanced nuclear, the hydrogen hubs, DAC credits. Notably NOT research and development. You make a subtle shift in your cost effectiveness table where you use unreviewed historic numbers on cost-effectiveness for research and development, and then apply that to the much larger demonstration and deployment dollars. Apples and oranges. The needs for low TRL tech is very different from high TRL tech.
I've simplified R&D to RD&D here, but I do cite RD&D projections - see and my calculation - do you think these numbers are off? What do you think they are? All models are wrong as they say.
Lastly, a Bill Gates retweet is not the humble brag you think it is. Bill has a terrible track record of success in energy ventures; he's uninformed and impulsive. Saying Bill Gates likes your energy startup is like saying Jim Cramer likes your stock. Both indicate a money-making opportunity for those who do the opposite.
That was a straightforward brag because he has millions of followers on X. I'm quite critical of Gates - I have blogged about this here. But also maybe we should give more credit to doing high-risk high reward stuff even if it doesn't work out... like Solyndra?
It's just my inside view that he carelessly and to some extent intentionally plays fast and loose with the truth to the point of libel by saying that Beckstead said 'To be honest I don't care that much about poverty' and then ended the call and went off to to have lunch. Stewart then framed it in a way as if he just in a very unreflective way just cares about 'asteroid strikes and robot overlords' - you can also call it hyperbole. I think he just couldn't bear that someone younger - 'sitting in California in his hoodie'- didn't want to give him- Rory Stewart OBE- a grant for a charity whose effectiveness he probably understands less well then Beckstead. I have a strong prior that he misrepresented Beckstead's view on this (Beckstead used to work for Givewell) and also due to the Sam Harris incident (which I only came across incidentally because I sometimes hate read Sam Harris on this topic). I thought it was worth it to come out strong with my inside view and on the spectrum from misremembering to lying I'm more inclined to call it lying.
I think Rory Stewart is lying... he has had problems with this recently:
https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/356-islam-freedom
(not endorsing Sam Harris here and not saying Stewart is not directionally correct).
I doubt that Nick Beckstead literally said 'I don't care about poverty'.
He seems bitter that his EA org was unable to raise funds from the Future Fund even though it had a different focus area and risk profile. Now he's shoehorning his peeves into the FTX fraud.
According to the guy who wrote the 2nd book on FTX, it was a fraud from mid-’21, when:
archive.is/FYMhv#selection-1959.0-1962.0
If they can now pay back user due to the Anthropic investment, that’s ex post luck.
Cool instance of black box evaluation - seems like a relatively simple study technically but really informative.
Do you have more ideas for future research along those lines you'd like to see?