How should we assess very uncertain and non-testable stuff?

There is a good and widely accepted approach to assessing testable projects - roughly what GiveWell does.  It is much less clear how EA research organisations should assess projects, interventions and organisations with very uncertain non-testable impact, such as policy work or academic research. There are some disparate materials on... Read More

Where should anti-paternalists donate?

GiveDirectly gives out unconditional cash transfers to some of the poorest people in the world. It’s clearly an outstanding organisation that is exceptionally data driven and transparent. However, according to GiveWell’s cost-effectiveness estimates (which represent a weighted average of the diverse views of GiveWell staffers), it is significantly less cost-effective... Read More

The asymmetry and the far future

TL;DR: One way to justify support for causes which mainly promise near-term but not far future benefits, such as global development and animal welfare, is the ‘intuition of neutrality’: adding possible future people with positive welfare does not add value to the world. Most people who endorse claims like this... Read More