I see in your comment on that post, you say "human extinction would not necessarily be an existential catastrophe" and "So, if advanced AI, as the most powerful entity on Earth, were to cause human extinction, I guess existential risk would be negligible on priors?". To be clear: what I'm interested in here is human extinction (not any broader conception of "existential catastrophe"), and the bet is about that.

See my comment on that post for why I don't agree. I agree nuclear extinction risk is low (but probably not that low)^[1]. ASI is really the only thing that is likely to kill every last human (and I think it is quite likely to do that given it will be way more powerful than anything else^[2]).

1. ^{^}

   But too be clear, global catastrophic / civilisational collapse risk from nuclear is relatively high (these often get conflated with "extinction").

2. ^{^}

   Not only do I think it will kill every last human, I think it's quite likely it will wipe out all known carbon-based life.

Interesting. Obviously I don't want to discourage you from the bet, but I'm surprised you are so confident based on this! I don't think the prior of mammal species duration is really relevant at all, when for 99.99% of the last 1M years there hasn't been any significant technology. Perhaps more relevant is homo sapiens wiping out all the less intelligent hominids (and many other species).

I think the chance of humans going extinct until the end of 2027 is basically negligible. I would guess around 10^-7 per year.

Would be interested to see your reasoning for this, if you have it laid out somewhere. Is it mainly because you think it's ~impossible for AGI/ASI to happen in that time? Or because it's ~impossible for AGI/ASI to cause human extinction?

I don't have a stable income so I can't get bank loans (I have tried to get a mortgage for the property before and failed - they don't care if you have millions in assets, all they care about is your income^[1], and I just have a relatively small, irregular rental income (Airbnb). But I can get crypto-backed smart contract loans, and do have one out already on Aave, which I could extend.). 

Also, the signalling value of the wager is pretty important too imo. I want people to put their money where their mouth is if they are so sure that AI x-risk isn't a near term problem. And I want to put my money where my mouth is too, to show how serious I am about this.

1. ^{^}

   I think this is probably because they don't want to go through the hassle of actually having to repossess your house, so if this seems at all likely they won't bother with the loan in the first place.

It's in Manchester, UK. I live elsewhere - renting currently, but shortly moving into another owned house that is currently being renovated (I've got a company managing the would-be-collateral house as an Airbnb, so no long term tenants either). Will send you more details via DM.

Cash is a tricky one, because I rarely hold much of it. I'm nearly always fully invested. But that includes plenty of liquid assets like crypto. Net worth wise, in 2027, assuming no AI-related craziness, I would be expect it to be in the 7-8 figure range, 5-95% maybe $500k-$100M).

Cool, thanks. I link to one post in the comment above. But see also.

Re risk, as per my offer on X, I'm happy to put my house up as collateral if you can be bothered to get the paperwork done. Otherwise happy to just trade on reputation (you can trash mine publicly if I don't pay up).

As I say above, I've been offering a similar bet for a while already. The symbolism is a big part of it. 

I can currently only take out crypto-backed loans, which have been quite high interest lately (don't have a stable income so can't get bank loans or mortgages), and have considered this but not done it yet.

Hi Vasco, sorry for the delay getting back to you. I have actually had a similar bet offer up on X for nearly a year (offering to go up to $250k) with only one taker for ~$30 so far! My one is you give x now and I give 2x in 5 years, which is pretty similar. Anyway, happy to go ahead with what you've suggested. 

I would donate the $10k to PauseAI (I would say $10k to PauseAI in 2024 is much greater EV than $19k to PauseAI at end of 2027).

[BTW, I have tried to get Bryan Caplan interested too, to no avail - if anyone is in contact with him, please ask him about it.]