[Paper] Interventions that May Prevent or Mollify Supervolcanic Eruptions

Supervolcanic eruptions are approximately 10 times as powerful as the eruption that caused the year without a summer in 1816. A supervolcanic eruption would cause local devastation, but the main problem is blocking the sun for years and starvation (with possible loss of civilization without recovery and other far future... Read More

How you can save expected lives for $0.20-$400 each and reduce X risk

    Summary The Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters ( ALLFED ) is a new EA-aligned charity with potential for high cost effectiveness in the global poverty and existential risk spaces. I have posted on the EA forum before about getting prepared for alternate foods (roughly those not... Read More

Should we be spending no less on alternate foods than AI now?

Summary: As part of a Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA) grant, I have estimated the cost effectiveness of preparing for agricultural catastrophes such as nuclear winter. This largely involves planning and research and development of alternate foods (roughly those not dependent on sunlight such as mushrooms, natural gas digesting bacteria... Read More

Futures of altruism special issue?

There is interest in having a special issue in the journal Futures on the futures of altruism. From reading this forum, I have identified a few possibilities: the endgame for animal product consumption offsetting next steps in Singer’s expanding circle the endgame of most people becoming EAs Of course there... Read More

Saving expected lives at $10 apiece?

On this forum, I have referred several times to a paper showing striking cost-effectiveness of getting prepared for global agricultural catastrophes. It is now published here . I acknowledge several EAs who reviewed the paper. The abstract is below; we also analyze return on investment and find extremely high values.... Read More

Advice Wanted on Expanding an EA Project

As I have written about before , I think getting prepared for agricultural catastrophes is a way to save expected lives cheaper than global poverty interventions (the paper with the numbers is under review). This would also reduce the chance of the collapse of civilization, from which we may not... Read More

Essay Competition on Preparation for Global Food Catastrophes

I am funding a 1000 word essay  competition  that is hosted by the Future of Humanity Institute and sponsored by the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute. It has a $2000 grand prize and $500 prizes in the categories of technology, economics, and policy. The deadline is April 15, 2016 . See ... Read More

Investment opportunity for the risk neutral

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser and you need to do your own research. I won't repeat this good article on investing for effective altruists: https://80000hours.org/2015/10/common-investing-mistakes-in-the-effective-altruism-community/ . But one of the key ideas is if you are investing for yourself and you are young, or if you are investing... Read More

My Cause Selection: Dave Denkenberger

  I made a very rough spreadsheet that estimates the expected impact of work on different causes for screening purposes. For the risks, it was based on expected damage, amount of work that has been done so far, and a functional form for marginal impact. I did it from several... Read More