Links from All time

Peter Hurford thinks that a large proportion of people should earn to give long term

Recently, 80,000 Hours wrote that they think only a small proportion of people should earn to give long term. They asked their team “At this point in time, and on the margin, what portion of altruistically motivated graduates from a good university, who are open to pursuing any career path,... Read More

Introducing CEA's Guiding Principles

Over the last year, I’ve given a lot of thought to the question of how the effective altruism community can stay true to its best elements and avoid problems that often bring movements down. Failure is the default outcome for a social movement, and so we should be proactive in... Read More

Clarifying the Giving What We Can pledge

CEA has gotten a lot of questions about the Giving What We Can pledge lately, and we’d like to answer them here. We've also updated our  Frequently Asked Questions page  and other parts of our website to reflect recent questions.  What is the Pledge? This is the Pledge To Give :... Read More

Guesstimate: An app for making decisions with confidence (intervals)

I’m happy to announce the public beta of Guesstimate , a web app for creating models and Fermi estimates with probability distributions.  It’s free, open source , and relatively easy to use. Effective Altruism is largely about optimizing expected value.  Expected value estimates often have high uncertainty for multiple inputs,... Read More

Donor lotteries: demonstration and FAQ

Suppose that Alice is trying to figure out how to do the most good with her donation of $1,000 this giving season, and can spend various kinds of resources to improve her decision. Unfortunately, many investments that could improve the decision quality would impose costs that are large relative to... Read More

Introducing fortify hEAlth: an EA-aligned charity startup

Overview   We’re engaging in an exciting entrepreneurship experiment:  can a new EA-aligned organization effectively reduce the burden of iron deficiency anemia and neural tube defects?  The burden is so large that we hypothesize that there exist opportunities for impact beyond already excellent work being done by major organizations. We... Read More

Why I'm donating to MIRI this year

I’ve been thinking about my annual donation, and I’ve decided to donate to MIRI this year. I haven’t previously donated to MIRI, and my reasons for doing so now are somewhat nuanced, so I thought they were worth explaining. I have previously thought that MIRI was taking a somewhat less-than-ideal... Read More

If you don't have good evidence one thing is better than another, don't pretend you do

One of the most common criticisms of people involved in EA from people who are not, is that we come across as arrogant and overconfident about our ideas even when we know very few concrete facts about the alternatives. I think that is a fair criticism. One of the most... Read More

In defence of epistemic modesty

This piece defends a strong form of epistemic modesty: that, in most cases, one should pay scarcely any attention to what you find the most persuasive view on an issue, hewing instead to an idealized consensus of experts. I start by better pinning down exactly what is meant by ‘epistemic... Read More

Personal thoughts on careers in AI policy and strategy

 S ummary : The AI strategy space is currently bottlenecked by entangled and under-defined research questions that are extremely difficult to resolve, as well as by a lack of current institutional capacity to absorb and utilize new researchers effectively. Accordingly, there is very strong demand for people who are good... Read More

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