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RyanCarey comments on A Complete Quantitative Model for Cause Selection - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: RyanCarey 27 May 2016 04:53:22AM 0 points [-]

Yeah introducing diminishing returns into a model could change the impact by an order of magnitude but I'm trying to answer a more binary question: which

What I'm trying to look at is will an intervention to x-risk has a "long-run impact" e.g. either approx. the cosmic endowment or approx. the current milleneum. If you use a constant discount or an exponential discount, that's going to make all of the difference. And if you think there's some amount of existential risk that's irreducible, that forces you to include some exponential discounting. So it's kind-of different from where you're trying to lead things.