We have completed our second phase of research which was to narrow a list of about thirty charity ideas to a more concise list of five top prospects worth further exploration. Below is a chart comparing these five possibilities. The rankings are relative to each other, not absolute and based on a primary and time limited review of the data on these causes.
We have written a detailed summary for each of these options elaborating on their strengths and weaknesses:
It is difficult to compare charities at this level, especially when the metrics we use to measure their respective impacts are so different (e.g. research vs. direct benefit). However, we still feel as though we have a front runner among these possibilities. SMS reminders to encourage vaccinations is currently our top pick for an intervention to pilot.
Though we are tentatively feel that our front-runner (SMS reminders) is the most promising intervention to proceed with, we have not closed the book on the other four options. We recognize that the difference in impact between the best and second best options could be very large, and thus feel that there can be “no stone unturned” with regards to making the right choice. To help make this the case, we are offering a one-time $500 prize to anyone who can significantly sway our decision by providing material that may challenge our conclusion thus far. How significant? We challenge you to change our top option by either weakening the case for SMS reminders or strengthening the case for another option. Why are we doing this? We need to make sure our decision is as airtight as possible before moving forward. Consider this an opportunity not only to get you (or a charity of your choice) $500 richer, but to make a hugely impactful contribution in the fight for global health. Email joey@charityscience.com for more information.
I would recommend against doing 'Poverty Research'. Like GiveWell I think most of the value comes from doing very high quality studies with proper samples. These are much harder to do than most people realise even within the EA community - small, hard to identify errors made early on can invalidate the results.
Most people with PhDs in quantitative research methods, who have trained with experts in the field, will still regularly conduct RCTs that are not very useful (though their work pushes the field forward by seeing what has to be done better next time).
A properly powered study also costs millions of dollars, so the minimum useful product here is quite substantial.
I could imagine most of the value of studies coming from very high quality studies, although I think there is also quite a lot of value in some replication and exploratory studies. I agree high quality studies are both hard to do and generally have their difficulty underestimated. We’re also on the same page when it comes to small problems at the beginning making the research effectively useless later on, which is why we would definitely hire people with a history of running exceptionally rigorous studies if we were to run this intervention. We are general... (read more)