We have completed our second phase of research which was to narrow a list of about thirty charity ideas to a more concise list of five top prospects worth further exploration. Below is a chart comparing these five possibilities. The rankings are relative to each other, not absolute and based on a primary and time limited review of the data on these causes.
We have written a detailed summary for each of these options elaborating on their strengths and weaknesses:
It is difficult to compare charities at this level, especially when the metrics we use to measure their respective impacts are so different (e.g. research vs. direct benefit). However, we still feel as though we have a front runner among these possibilities. SMS reminders to encourage vaccinations is currently our top pick for an intervention to pilot.
Though we are tentatively feel that our front-runner (SMS reminders) is the most promising intervention to proceed with, we have not closed the book on the other four options. We recognize that the difference in impact between the best and second best options could be very large, and thus feel that there can be “no stone unturned” with regards to making the right choice. To help make this the case, we are offering a one-time $500 prize to anyone who can significantly sway our decision by providing material that may challenge our conclusion thus far. How significant? We challenge you to change our top option by either weakening the case for SMS reminders or strengthening the case for another option. Why are we doing this? We need to make sure our decision is as airtight as possible before moving forward. Consider this an opportunity not only to get you (or a charity of your choice) $500 richer, but to make a hugely impactful contribution in the fight for global health. Email joey@charityscience.com for more information.
I'm concerned about the SMS reminder thing for a weird reason: it looks too easy.
A number of reasons this is concerning -- not sure which apply in this case since I don't fully understand the process by which this list was created, but off the top of my head here they are:
Again, this may indeed be a good idea despite the above. But my alarm bells are going off.
Edit: Further thoughts -- unsure if this ever could become a GiveWell top charity. It seems like the "room for more funding" isn't that high, because the impact of this project doesn't seem blocked on money.
Very briefly, the process was starting with GiveWell’s list of charities they might like to see (this was mostly broad cause areas) and doing further research into each area to determine a short list of promising specific charities.
1) I think my main thoughts around this is that the charity market is a lot less efficient than the for profit market so there are more low hanging opportunities. And even the for profit market isn’t perfect. There’s a specific brand of vegan sausages in the UK that is impossible to get in Canada, despite it being better than a... (read more)