We have completed our second phase of research which was to narrow a list of about thirty charity ideas to a more concise list of five top prospects worth further exploration. Below is a chart comparing these five possibilities. The rankings are relative to each other, not absolute and based on a primary and time limited review of the data on these causes.
We have written a detailed summary for each of these options elaborating on their strengths and weaknesses:
It is difficult to compare charities at this level, especially when the metrics we use to measure their respective impacts are so different (e.g. research vs. direct benefit). However, we still feel as though we have a front runner among these possibilities. SMS reminders to encourage vaccinations is currently our top pick for an intervention to pilot.
Though we are tentatively feel that our front-runner (SMS reminders) is the most promising intervention to proceed with, we have not closed the book on the other four options. We recognize that the difference in impact between the best and second best options could be very large, and thus feel that there can be “no stone unturned” with regards to making the right choice. To help make this the case, we are offering a one-time $500 prize to anyone who can significantly sway our decision by providing material that may challenge our conclusion thus far. How significant? We challenge you to change our top option by either weakening the case for SMS reminders or strengthening the case for another option. Why are we doing this? We need to make sure our decision is as airtight as possible before moving forward. Consider this an opportunity not only to get you (or a charity of your choice) $500 richer, but to make a hugely impactful contribution in the fight for global health. Email joey@charityscience.com for more information.
Dear Joey,
I've recently written the following paper you might find interesting. It's the first essay I've written for my PhD and, as the title suggests, I try to understand what a billionaire EA should do to maximise happiness. In brief, my conclusion is that mental health and happiness interventions look a lot more promising that our present anti-poverty and anti-malaria ones.
https://www.academia.edu/25088361/What_Should_A_Utilitarian_Billionaire_Do_To_Maximise_Happiness
I’ve been meaning to put something on the EA forum on this topic for a while but haven’t got around to it (because I don’t really use/understand the EA Forum and saw this on facebook).
Regarding the conclusions you reach:
-I’m actually sceptical that Conditional Cash Transfers increase happiness at all and it's therefore questionable how useful they are. I don’t think we have enough evidence yet to know: we’d need to track people’s experiences of happiness over at least 6 months. (I've previously discussed this with Rob Wiblin and there might be an argument about the long-run economic benefits of CCTs that I'd like to see in made in writing).
-So, I think research in the effectiveness of poverty looks very good!
-I didn't consider tobacco taxation or micro-nutrient fortification but my guess is that these are unlikely to change people’s experiences of happiness by much either. I’d suppose that a smoking reduction would help people live longer but there’s a further value question of how much you weight helping people live longer (I take the epicurean view on death, which means I'm uncertain there's any value in prolonging life, but feel free to ignore this).
-I didn't consider anything about SMS immunisation reminders. Intuitively that does look quite promising from the modules I took into behavioural econ a couple of years back, but I'm sure your knowledge is much more up to do that mine and you've harvested everything you can from the Behavioural Insights Team and so on. If you would like to talk to some (more) behavioural economists I have at least one friend working in the area I could put in touch with.
I hope that's helpful. If you have any questions I'm best reached via the facebook or michael.plant@philosophy.ox.ac.uk
Thanks for the thoughtful response! Some thoughts on these that I will also email you but thought that other folks on the EA Forum might like being kept in the loop.
With regards to your essay, I really like it and found a lot of parts very interesting. This is in fact an area we looked into a little bit, although did not write much on it. I strongly agree that ‘internal happiness interventions’ (‘IHIs’) are extremely neglected in contrast to the ‘external happiness interventions’ (‘EHIs’) compared to what a rational utilitarian should value.
I did end up ... (read more)