Hello EA forum-goers! I've just finished putting together a new report on climate change for Giving What We Can, and it'd be great to get your thoughts on it.
Introduction: http://preview.givingwhatwecan.org/cause/3Hxr8Hb8IMoEaOYAKkuG6c (this will appear on the same page as Part 1)
Part 1: http://preview.givingwhatwecan.org/report/1WWlWmFxscuGsIiQIKKeyk
Part 2: http://preview.givingwhatwecan.org/report/1VSgt5YVhK0o6wCk2ggcCe
Evaluation of Cool Earth: http://preview.givingwhatwecan.org/report/2CFCCfUSi4icqeS6emE046
(other evaluations and new modelling are also on their way - I'll put the links here once they're available for viewing)
Suggestions, thoughts, criticisms are all welcome!
edit: Please don't share these links widely, they're not yet the final versions and don't actually link to the main GWWC site.
Wow this looks excellent. Great work!! I have only skim read it because it is long and my time is short but there are a few unanswered questions that jump out at me in this that it would be great to see a bit more detail on:
Q1. Full consideration of tail risks.
Q2. Indirect tail risks
Q3. What is the point of mitigation?
Q4. Quantifying lobbying
Q5. Where to lobby?
Q6. The value of putting time into this?
Sorry for all the questions. That was more questions than I expected when I started writing and some of them do not seem particularly relevant - I guess I just spewed out all my uncertainties about climate change.
Anyway this is truly a magnificent piece of research (to my layman's eyes at least) so well done :-)
Have also posted it in https://www.facebook.com/groups/1509936222639432/ so hopefully you will get some more feedback.
Disclaimer: i have no expertise in climate change.
Also the link to https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2016/04/modelling-climate-change-cost-effectiveness does not work.
Hi Sam,
Thanks! Glad you liked it. It's currently just a preview and not actually published yet, so that's why some links and functionality may not work (and the post on the model I used is still yet to go up).
In regards to Q1 - I would like to, yeah. When it comes to the probabilities of different levels of warming though, it's super uncertain. The ~1% chance of 10 degrees of warming is only under one of several possible probability distributions and we really just don't have any clue which of those distributions is accurate. And in addition to the uncerta... (read more)