E.g. What is the expected effect on existential risk of donating to one of GiveWell's top charities?
I've asked myself this question several times over the last few years, but I've never put a lot of thought into it. I've always just assumed that at the very least it would not increase existential risk.
Have any analyses been done on this?
This is useful but doesnt entirely answer William's question. To put it another way: suppose GiveDirectly reduced extreme poverty in East Africa by 50%. What would your best estimate of the effect of that on xrisk be? I'd expect it to be quite positive, but havent thought about how to estimate the magnitude.