Last year a bunch of people made blog posts outlining where they were planning to donate that year and why. This year, we have a better medium: the EA forum!
If anyone else is interested in discussing their giving plans and reasons--either completed or in-progress--post them below. I'd love to hear people's thoughts!
EDIT: as Jess Riedel points out, don't let this replace posting on your blog, where more/different people will see it!
Here's some thoughts from me on this:
Effective Altruism Outreach has room for more funding and an excellent plan, so that's what I would give to personally at the moment: http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c5/effective_altruism_outreach_needs_your_donations/
I think with some confidence Giving What We Can, Charity Science and GiveWell all dominate giving to, e.g. AMF, because of the fundraising and movement-building multiplier they provide. I would expect them to be at least twice as good, and potentially more than 5 times as good.
Last I checked MIRI had a lot of reserves, so I think there's a case for holding onto your money and waiting to read the details of their scale-up plans. CSER could definitely use extra money, so if I were going to give to existential risk charity specifically that is where I would probably donate.
CFAR could be a good movement building approach, but I would want to see what evidence they've collected on their impact on their alumni before donating.
(N.B. I am personally involved with EAO and GWWC).
What happens to marginal unrestricted funding for CEA? If it gets distributed to projects like GWWC and EAO, it seems better to give directly to CEA, who will know where the money can be used better (assuming values align).