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oliverbramford comments on Bottlenecks and Solutions for the X-Risk Ecosystem - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: oliverbramford 09 October 2018 12:17:21PM *  4 points [-]

The required skills and experience of senior hires vary between fields and roles; senior x-risk staff are probably best-placed to specify these requirements in their respective domains of work. You can look at x-risk job ads and recruitment webpages of leading x-risk orgs for some reasonable guidance. (we are developing a set of profiles for prospective high-impact talent, to give a more nuanced picture of who's required).

"Exceptionally good judgement and decision-making", for senior x-risk talent, I believe requires:

  • a thorough and nuanced understanding of EA concepts and how they apply to the context

  • good pragmatic foresight - an intuitive grasp of the likely and possible implications of one's actions

  • a conscientious risk-aware attitude, with the ability to think clearly and creatively to identify failure modes

Assessing good-judgement and decision-making is hard; it's particularly hard to assess the consistency of a person's judgement without knowing/working with them over at least several months. Some methods:

  • Speaking to a person can quickly clarify their level of knowledge of EA concepts and how they apply to the context of their role.

  • Speaking to references could be very helpful, to get a picture of how a person updates their beliefs and actions.

  • Actually working with them (perhaps via a work trial, partnership or consultancy project) is probably the best way to test whether a person is suitable for the role

  • A critical thinking psychometric test may plausibly be a good preliminary filter, but is perhaps more relevant for junior talent. A low score would be a big red flag, but a high score is far from sufficient to imply overall good judgement and decision-making.