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rhys_lindmark comments on Current Estimates for Likelihood of X-Risk? - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: rhys_lindmark 12 August 2018 06:40:59PM 2 points [-]

Perfect, thanks! I agree with most of your points (and just writing them here for my own understanding/others):

  • Uncertainty hard (long time scale, humans adaptable, risks systemically interdependent so we get zero or double counting)
  • Probabilities have incentives (e.g. Stern's discounting incentive)
  • Probabilities get simplified (0-10% can turn into 5% or 0% or 10%)

I'll ping you as I get closer to a editable draft of my book, so we can ensure I'm painting an appropriate picture. Thanks again!