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riceissa comments on Current Estimates for Likelihood of X-Risk? - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: riceissa  (EA Profile) 08 August 2018 05:42:11AM *  5 points [-]

Anders Sandberg's Flickr account has a 2014 photo of a whiteboard from FHI containing estimates for the following statements/questions:

  • Probability that >50% of humans will die in a disaster in next 100 years
  • Are we living in a computer simulation created by some advanced civilization?
  • Your credence that humanity goes extinct in the next 100 years – replacing us with something better (e.g. WBE) doesn't count
  • Your credence that AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)

The photo caption is:

Office guesses at (A) a disaster killing 50%+ of humanity in the next century, (B) our reality turning out to be a simulation, (C) extinction within a century, and (D) artificial general intelligence before 2050.

This is based on earlier Aumann agreement experiments we did. Credences are free to update as we see each other's views, as well as get new evidence.

There are two other photos showing parts of the same (or similar) whiteboard.

HT: Louis Francini for originally pointing me to these photos.

Comment author: Khorton 08 August 2018 10:21:02AM 0 points [-]

The staff at FHI thinks we're more likely to be a computer simulation than to die out in the next century?!