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Denise_Melchin comments on Current Estimates for Likelihood of X-Risk? - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Denise_Melchin 07 August 2018 11:32:35AM 3 points [-]

Do you have private access to the Good Judgement data? I've been thinking before about how it would be good to get superforecasters to answer such questions but didn't know of a way to access the results of previous questions.

(Though there is the question of how much superforecasters' previous track record on short-term questions translates to success on longer-term questions.)

Comment author: Carl_Shulman 07 August 2018 07:38:27PM 5 points [-]

GJ results (as opposed Good Judgment Open) aren't public, but Open Phil has an account with them. This is from a batch of nuclear war probability questions I suggested that Open Phil commission to help assess nuclear risk interventions.

Comment author: Peter_Hurford  (EA Profile) 07 August 2018 11:11:17PM 1 point [-]

This is really cool, Carl. Thanks for sharing. Do superforecasters ever make judgments about other x-risks?

Comment author: Carl_Shulman 08 August 2018 01:47:27AM 3 points [-]

Not by default, but I hope to get more useful forecasts that are EA action-relevant in the future performed and published.