Khorton comments on Current Estimates for Likelihood of X-Risk? - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Khorton 06 August 2018 11:33:01PM *  2 points [-]

If we're really uncertain how to quantify the risks, why do we do it (in everyday conversation)?

-Gregory's comment suggests that precisely quantifying the risks doesn't matter for far future arguments.

-People could argue with the numbers we use rather than the actually logic - precisely defining a % chance of extinction could pull focus from more important arguments.

-Using numbers that seem precise (eg 10%) may signal a degree of certainty that we can't back up. Using numbers carelessly isn't something we want to be known for.

Perhaps the answer is to avoid quantifying the risk.