Carl_Shulman comments on Current Estimates for Likelihood of X-Risk? - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Carl_Shulman 06 August 2018 09:55:19PM *  14 points [-]

The considerations about the relative importance of x-risk reduction seem to be fairly insensitive to 10^-1 or 10^-5 (at more extreme values, you might start having pascalian worries), and instead the discussion hinges on issues like tractability, pop ethics, etc.

I think differences over that range matter a lot, both within a long-termist perspective and over a pluralist distribution across perspectives.

At the high end of that range the low-hanging fruit of x-risk reduction will also be very effective at saving the lives of already existing humans, making them less dependent on concern for future generations.

At the low end, non-existential risk trajectory changes look more important within long-termist frame, or capacity building for later challenges.

Magnitude of risk also importantly goes into processes for allocating effort under moral uncertainty and moral pluralism.