The last Open Thread was in October 2017, so I thought we were overdue for a new one.
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I'm making the claim that with regard to the far future, it's mostly noise and very little signal.
I think there's some signal re: the far future. E.g. probably true that fewer nuclear weapons on the planet today is better for very distant outcomes.
But I don't think most things are like this re: the far future.
I think the signal:noise ratio is much better in other domains.
I don't know very much about evolution, but I suspect that humans evolved the ability to make accurate predictions on short time horizons (i.e. 40 years or less).