The last Open Thread was in October 2017, so I thought we were overdue for a new one.
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I suspect it's basically impossible to model all the relevant far-future considerations in a way that feels believable (i.e. high confidence that the sign of all considerations is correct, plus high confidence that you're not missing anything crucial).
I share this intuition, but "still net positive" is a long way off from "most cost-effective."
AMF has received so much scrutiny because it's a contender for the most cost-effective way to give money – I'm skeptical we can make believable claims about cost-effect when we take the far future into account.
I'm more bullish about assessing the sign of interventions while taking the far future into account, though that still feels fraught.