The last Open Thread was in October 2017, so I thought we were overdue for a new one.
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I'm glad you reposted this.
I'd argue we don't necessarily know yet whether this is true. It may well be true, but it may well be false.
This doesn't account for the fact that there's still gradients of relative believability here, even if the absolute believability is low. There's also an interesting meta-question of what to do when under various levels and kinds of uncertainty (and getting a better handle just how bad the uncertainty is).
I think the crux here is that absolute believability is low, such that you can't really trust the output of your analysis.
Agree the meta-question is interesting :-)