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Milan_Griffes comments on Why I'm skeptical of cost-effectiveness analysis - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Milan_Griffes 04 July 2018 12:32:44AM 0 points [-]

I'm using "accurate" to mean something like "well-calibrated" (a person being well-calibrated if e.g. their 20%-likely predictions come true 20% of the time).

Another way of phrasing (5) is that it is very difficult (maybe impossible?) to become well-calibrated re: the far future.