Milan_Griffes comments on Why I'm skeptical of cost-effectiveness analysis - Effective Altruism Forum

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (4)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Milan_Griffes 04 July 2018 12:32:44AM 0 points [-]

I'm using "accurate" to mean something like "well-calibrated" (a person being well-calibrated if e.g. their 20%-likely predictions come true 20% of the time).

Another way of phrasing (5) is that it is very difficult (maybe impossible?) to become well-calibrated re: the far future.