kbog comments on Why I'm skeptical of cost-effectiveness analysis - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: kbog  (EA Profile) 04 July 2018 12:09:54AM *  2 points [-]

I disagree with 5. Under subjective probability theory it is not really coherent to think that one's expectation is inaccurate. You probably mean to say that they are difficult to predict precisely, but that's generally not relevant if we are maximizing expected value.

Comment author: Milan_Griffes 04 July 2018 12:32:44AM 0 points [-]

I'm using "accurate" to mean something like "well-calibrated" (a person being well-calibrated if e.g. their 20%-likely predictions come true 20% of the time).

Another way of phrasing (5) is that it is very difficult (maybe impossible?) to become well-calibrated re: the far future.