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Denise_Melchin comments on Against prediction markets - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Denise_Melchin 14 May 2018 08:32:20PM 0 points [-]

Interesting! I am trading off accuracy with outside world manipulation in that argument, since accuracy isn't actually the main end goal I care about (but 'good done in the world' for which better forecasts of the future would be pretty useful).

Comment author: Pablo_Stafforini 15 May 2018 05:10:08PM 2 points [-]

Feel free to ignore if you don't think this is sufficiently important, but I don't understand the contrast you draw between accuracy and outside world manipulation. I thought manipulation of prediction markets was concerning precisely because it reduces their accuracy. Assuming you accept Robin's point that manipulation increases accuracy on balance, what's your residual concern?