Denise_Melchin comments on Against prediction markets - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: PeterMcCluskey 12 May 2018 04:59:59PM 7 points [-]

Who are you arguing against? The three links in your first paragraph go to articles that don't clearly disagree with you.

I’d also be curious about a prediction market in which only superforecasters trade.

I'd guess that there would be fewer trades than otherwise, and this would often offset any benefits that come from the high quality of the participants.

Comment author: Denise_Melchin 13 May 2018 08:36:41AM 7 points [-]

I'm arguing against prediction markets being the best alternative in many situations contemplated by EAs, which is something I have heard said or implied by a lot of EAs in conversations I've had with them. Most notably, I think a lot of EAs are unaware of the arguments I make in the post and I wanted to have them written up for future reference.

Comment author: Joey 13 May 2018 09:38:26PM 1 point [-]

I have had a lot of EAs say this to me in person as well.