Fighting Aging as an Effective Altruism Cause: A Model of the Impact of the Clinical Trials of Simple Interventions
Abstract: The effective altruism movement aims to save lives in the most cost-effective ways. In the future, technology will allow radical life extension, and anyone who survives until that time will gain potentially indefinite life extension. Fighting aging now increases the number of people who will survive until radical life extension becomes possible. We suggest a simple model, where radical life extension is achieved in 2100, the human population is 10 billion, and life expectancy is increased by simple geroprotectors like metformin by three more years on average, so an additional 250 million people survive until “immortality”. The cost of clinical trials to prove that metformin is a real geroprotector is $60 million. In this simplified case, the price of a life saved is around 24 cents, 10 000 times cheaper than saving a life from malaria by providing bed nets. However, fighting aging should not be done in place of fighting existential risks, as they are complementary causes.
Highlights:
● Aging and death are the main causes of human suffering now.
● Simple interventions could extend human lives until aging is defeated.
● These interventions need to be clinically tested before FDA approval.
● A trial of the life extension drug metformin is delayed by lack of funds.
● Starting trials now will save 250 million people from death, at a cost of $0.24 for each life saved.
Please comment on the preprint of the article here: https://goo.gl/WaEYt5
1 rupee is $0.015 not $0.0015 by nominal exchange rates. Sales tax must be included, as well as comparison with the lower nominal incomes in India rather than the global PPP standard that I gave. Other metformin manufacturers seem to generally charge more (https://www.medindia.net/drug-price/list.asp). Presumably they are not available in all locations; presumably there are areas where people simply don't have easy access to buying these drugs at all. And we are just talking about India, the king of drug IP abuse. I bet if you look at Pakistan or Nigeria then it won't be so easy to buy these drugs there.
I just don't understand how it is possible to assume that even half of the people in the world will purchase and use the most effective product regardless of where they live. Have you tried to convince someone in this position to take any kind of supplements? Like, gone to someone who has very low income, and relies on bicycle or public transport, and explained to them why they should add this or that vitamin or OTC drug to their daily routine? If you had, I don't think you would be making this assumption.
Well yeah, but if you want to calculate the expected value then you must go by what is likely to happen, not what you wish to happen.
Apps exist on smart phones, which lots of people don't have, and most of the remainder won't bother to install or pay attention to it. Moreover, apps don't exist in every language.
Yes, my typo but 0.015 is still around 2 cents as is said in the article.
About persuasion: it is a problem of marketing, which was successfully solved about vitamins.
The global market of vitamin C is around 1 bln USD, btw. https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/08/24/866422/0/en/Global-Ascorbic-Acid-Market-Poised-to-Surge-from-USD-820-4-Million-in-2015-to-USD-1083-8-Million-by-2021-MarketResearchStore-Com.html