Fighting Aging as an Effective Altruism Cause: A Model of the Impact of the Clinical Trials of Simple Interventions
Abstract: The effective altruism movement aims to save lives in the most cost-effective ways. In the future, technology will allow radical life extension, and anyone who survives until that time will gain potentially indefinite life extension. Fighting aging now increases the number of people who will survive until radical life extension becomes possible. We suggest a simple model, where radical life extension is achieved in 2100, the human population is 10 billion, and life expectancy is increased by simple geroprotectors like metformin by three more years on average, so an additional 250 million people survive until “immortality”. The cost of clinical trials to prove that metformin is a real geroprotector is $60 million. In this simplified case, the price of a life saved is around 24 cents, 10 000 times cheaper than saving a life from malaria by providing bed nets. However, fighting aging should not be done in place of fighting existential risks, as they are complementary causes.
Highlights:
● Aging and death are the main causes of human suffering now.
● Simple interventions could extend human lives until aging is defeated.
● These interventions need to be clinically tested before FDA approval.
● A trial of the life extension drug metformin is delayed by lack of funds.
● Starting trials now will save 250 million people from death, at a cost of $0.24 for each life saved.
Please comment on the preprint of the article here: https://goo.gl/WaEYt5
I know this surprising fact that older people report better life satisfaction despite having more chronics pain, fewer opportunities, more deceases. I addressed this in the article in the following paragraph:
"This relationship is not obvious, as we are culturally adapted to see age-related changes as normal, and economically based surveys show a u-shaped relation between satisfaction and age (T. C. Cheng, Powdthavee, & Oswald, 2017). However, if all objective and subjective data are taken into account, a plot of this relationship produces a convex form with peak of quality of life at 18, followed by decline (Easterlin, 2006)."
The opportunity cost of life extension is that another person will be never born. But if we take into account the infinite size of the universe, he will be born somewhere else. These infinities are known to cause ethical difficulties as was explored by Bostrom here https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/infinite.pdf
My position is that we first take care about actually exiting people in our space neighbourhood, and later we will take care of all non-existent possible people and of all animals. Maybe we will do it via resurrection of all possible beings near the Omega point, as was suggested by Tipler. The reason to do good level by level is that it helps us to escape "utility monsters" which we can't solve on our level of recourses.
I will try to incorporate replies to your comments in the article
What? Since when? This looks like something you just came up with. Whatever your reasons for believing this, it is a radical and controversial thesis which must be backed up with a serious philosophical argument. Bostrom's paper on infinite ethics does not do the trick here.
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